When a student is better than the guru ;)

December - the start of an end

The last batch of live trades left me with a profit of about USD 15 after costs...yeeay.
Which is on par with these guys ( http://www.livetradingchallenge.com/results.pdf )
LoL.
Now is December and it's time to think back my plan forward...
After years of colorful charts with scriibles up and down....I decided to END of these,
So now still in SIMMING mode
No pivots
No PHLC.
No indies.
I'm now testing MTF clean charts with volume only in 10m, 5m, 2m, 30s...in different shades of reds and blueish greens CandLeStiCK with optional lines drawn manually.

I will keep it at least till Q1 2013 (end Mac) whatever happens....(you saw my mind always changing wave here so often like the market)
Plan to have another rounds of live *LFT in January 2013...

* LoW freq trading ..LOL

Counting my blessing

http://blog.opentrader.com/trading-vs-sports-vs-chess-vs-poker/

internet problem at home disrupted my lifestyle :)

Lines

erased all auto lines in my charts as I would eyeballing for lines myself.
To newbies, don't do this at home :)

Taken Notes (setup adjustment)

Now I keep 3 charts (MTF):
A)  1 standard 5 min setup to see other traders screen ;). Have a standard volume indicator.
B) one  personalized chart  as my overall trading map that purely rely on candlestick pattern (without sma/ema as I found that ema/sma in that timeframe is not reliable). Have an improvised volume indicator
C ) one new chart setup that really focus on sma line & SR lines (without rely on candlestick pattern as the candlestick pattern on this chart is not that reliable). Without volume indicator

The objective is to find a balance feedback for my trading brain.

Observation of these combination as follows in SIM:
1st day = profitable but the paper profits decreased as I tend to overtrading in SIM
2nd day=antiCIPApation of move needed to done in big frame before the small frame, not vice versa then prove it...this is a CORE nature of trading. Tehnical alone is not enough. Usage of small frame like scalping, and usage of bigger frame is sniping the trend- and antiCIPation is easier in BIgger frame. The difficult thing is anticipation is not printed on chart- so I cant trust my eye, I need to trust my judgment. based on tehnical dan some funnymentals.

If you think pro traders are so smart....

then you have to watch this :)

http://www.livetradingchallenge.com/schedule.htm

Backward and forward

After several series of Live trading, I did some review of my trading to find out why I cant make some decision when the time come. And the key seems to be in volume-related issues : choppy, ranging as happened lately in CL. Will take some time before moving back to live trading. Need to check if I need to change that ema to sma which I found is better line

No setup - ready to rumble

No trade. Only 1 unproven experimental setup pop-up.
Cl prepareditself for a next strong move

Flat set up only for 9am

1st win, 2nd lose (flat setup)....as the liquidity is low before that.
2max trades before 9

my other chart in its full glory...
oh well, I dunno why I kept chosen the difficult path .
 may be i'm afraid of success ;(

Good training for candlestick newbie

http://chartgame.com/play.cgi?brmu8v

clik timelapse button to continue

Possible new oil field

Rolloverdays.
My 3 regular setups were no where. However, there 2 other potential patterns emerged that worth  to beobserve from now.
And that make it to 5.

The different sameness

No trade. The old men meetings FOMC made market difficult to trade.
But suddenly the setup appeared in OTHER frame. So I missed out
The right frame can be changeable as market behaviour differ.
but setup remain the same

Peanuts

Lack of Volume today - 1 P trade

No way through

1st trade won using mini Flat setup , 2nd trade using regular setup but market too weak.
Nett positive
In market like this, risk is higher

decided to stop after 2nd trade as per rule

Run away chart -

No trade coz no setup but I reminded of this Flat setup.

More peanuts

Missed 3 trades and the 4th real chance gave peanuts as above.

Sitting tight with small pocket proved to be difficult for me at this stage

Peanuts 2

1st win, 2nd trade lose. Net win peanuts

Lesson:
Confused on DSTime that affect volume and need to pay attention to HI HI LO LO level during 2nd trade.
Lines need to be drawn.

Scored point:
Exit when market didn't move as expected.

Max #trade so didn't take 3rd trade in chart ..Hmm...

Friday Extra

Spike    > Employemet situation - NonFarm Payrolls 8.30am 

Peanuts

See something familiar with previous post ?

EIA 10.30 Thu

Sandy - no trading

Be prepared.

Long ; +small plus

Exit: as price stalled at SR lines, exit position as market not moved fast as expected - then price move up again..close pc to avoid emotional decision. :) But you may called it 'no guts' :)
Entry: Put stop order at below market price as I thought market was not strong

I will miss this good session

My family will held a festive Hajj during Thursday session and again I will miss an opportunity. I need to pray to Allah to grant me more  time to meet opportunities

On the grind

Oil report and a group of old people had meeting - so the market was slow. However, in future,  I will sim trades at 10.30am to test my setup in fast environment

Hmm

CL moved early, as early as 6.30am !..I hated when that happen as I know it meant that today's opportunity is as good as gone already..and I hated it further when it prove me correct.....What left was tricky precision move that hard to be detected at 8am..then choppy session even though volume was high..One the reason was CL has dropped to an abyss that has no real support at the bottom - so I GUESSED it want to find firm footing first.

ps. OMG CL can read my mind...when I was typing the prev para I heard my audio alert but I ignored it...then I saw the chart show a perfect entry..

lesson: If you're a trader, don't give up your hope in the market,  you need to LOVE IT....and... if the market moved early ..I need to wait till 10.35am before close shop ;)

Monday blues

Traders decided based on last weekends SR, therefore the price action quite tricky. On my part, my job was looking for a perfect pattern and that pattern nearly completed when I realized one "average " requirement not matched, so I halted.

My decision was correct as the market suddenly switched down and trapped other big candle traders . I took my breath and closed the PC. Moving average need to be respected which nearly 90% traders use it.

Gred B pattern

Traders waited the report and rollover days produced Gred B pattern  that I will not take when my bullets only a few..But I may take these Gred B pattern when the account permit

Not my type

After a run yesterday, today market more suitable to "ping pong players". Traders volume shrunked and at 9.24  I decided to close the pc earlier.

My trigger is the ? mark

I saw  my set up...The question pop up..Is this the one ? No answer from my brain..
The market follow my plan.

Then I saw a nice line near 9am...Again that question pop up.Is this the one ? No answer from my brain.
The market drop according my plan.

Then no more question pop up...and no more signal...

Of course I knew that CL will run amok today as both my son AND wife besides me in front of the PC - as I were preparing my 8 y.o. son for his end of year exam. But this should not the excuse as I acknowledged it already. I have to accept the fact that I need to execute the plan when the moment come even though I could be distracted by anything....

I knew the ? mark came as my brain acted as a safety regulator for my best interest. I had a clear cut plan in my mind.. But when the moment came, the brain not giving a "go" nod, instead it give out a "? " mark.

From this experience I also printed a checklist to execute...May be my Visual brain need that assurance when it pop up a ? mark when moment of the lowest risk for entry come . A top-rated hospital staff once told me that they marked several checklist to ensure they do the right thing even though they knew it already, just to be on the safety side...i.e don't cut the wrong eye, or cut the wrong leg.

I realized that the highest risk is not to take action according to plan.On the other hand, to be fair, I will give chance myself some initial errors in executing the plan

Changed my mental set up

From
I pictured myself trading my best setup, using single lot bullet, maximum 2 times per day or I do nothing.


To :
I pictured myself trading my best setup, using single lot bullet, maximum 2 times per day .

Why:
Time to do it

Volume revisited

I done some homework on printed charts
I  learned from the gurus that price action only confirmed if the volume is higher...
But my printed charts show that 80% of the best  opportunities often came when the volume is low.
A sort of against the trend before follow the trend - tricky isn't it ?
Who say trading is easy ?

Trading Days & Time

For 6E trading...
I trade from 8.30am to 10.35am  EST,  5 days/week

My 60% part of success- part 2

The session was quite tricky, and my best setup was no where.
But I'm really glad that  I can sit in early to capture the potential move from now..
Sooner or later I will not miss that time and tick.

Missed entry within 2 seconds

Open the computer, activated DOM, then saw an entry.
I wanted to put a stop entry but the market moved up as predicted  and I missed the lowest risk entry 2 seconds for a gred C move that has value USD 250 +-
That was a close call..
Missed a tick before and then missed the time now.

post edit: that move valued usd 700

Missed it by 1 tick

Real DOM.
missed short position...well, good..the market not played my game after all.
I retune my chart time frame to get better market outlook
I will be miss next session (Wednesday) which I thought must be has a good run cause I need to buy cake for my son's birthday.

Song

To prove that I'm a trend follower. I presented to you Gangnam Style

Sideways Up Down

Live DOM
I thought the market shall be sideways..yes
Up
Down
Yes
yes
But my best setup was no where to find
As nothern hemisphere becoming colder...active hunting season will begin soon..I'll shall stay a LIVE :)

Chaos theory

Today I watched a movie about a chaos situation i.e robbing a bank
Chaos theory is extremely complicated, as they said.
Nope, if you looked at the chaos situation e.g CL according to your own rules and understanding.
Also you made sure your rules and understanding are simple AND looked simple

p.s. I still looking at CL market according to my own sweet time.I'am in no hurry

The plan, the plan

My finger eargerly wanted to clicking a short position as I predicted a short move, but the price was marginally missed it a few tick...... Hey ! this market not following my plan, so I cancelled the position.

The market then moved up and I saved my tuition fee 120usd.

Real DOM activated

...had some good gred B movement but my best setup was no where to find.
I will maintain the real DOM from now on, as long as my account permits :)

My 60% part of success

I spoke too soon yesterday as today the jackal move while I'm at the dining table.
Yeap, blogging heped in tracking my weakness
CL's most active trading hour is the same time we have dinner in Malaysia.
After dinner I supposed to look after my son school's work.
So i keep missing things.
I'm confident that I will be kickass trader If I'm based in Chicago.
That Chicago's line is a joke :).
I need to turn my weakness to strength If i'm really serious to be a good trader

Late coming to the screen

I need a discipline to come to screen earlier.
at this moment ..it is 60% part of my success in trading.
I cant blame my son forever.

Gred C movement

I looked for my best setup in a gred C movement..but its nowhere to find.
Instead I found several triangles setup that to be studied further in my current frame of mind

Make your own rule

 I was teaching my boy, so I switched to SIM.
Then I saw my set up.
The market then left me at the station, but I didnt' care..I sim short at MY price where the risk is lower.
My mentality at that moment :  I didn't care about the market, but I care for my setup and plan. 
1 lot
Then I continued teaching my boy.
After a while 10min, I looked at my screen : greenback usd +860 in fake sim money.
I forgot....How I did that ?
I mean why in SIM ?..oh yeah...my boy distracted me..nevermind, my time is more precious with him.

p.s. as my trading mind progressed further I changed my blog name to Sniping the Jackal

Sim +110

After Aug - but volume still low so switched to Sim using ema inside bar setup +110

Voice & Volume

One good thing when you at rest, you're free to think the strategy.

I used this blog to capture the charts and show the results, but something is lack that difficult for me to back-track - the emotional rollercoster while trading . How to record while your fingers clicking the mouse:

So my new idea that I'll  use live audio recording using a cassette recorder ...ala autopsies dr

Another thing is that I will reintroduce volume to my charts . In the past the volume clouded my judgment while I'm looking at pure price action, and now I felt I learned enough price action, I will study volume-action.

One step ahead.

Time off due to Ramadhan

Ramdhan is a fasting month for Muslim and is the holiest month within Islamic calendar..So I have another 3 weeks off trading...

As PFG & MFG brokers gone under, I hope my broker is healthy as ever when I resumed trading.
Yesterday I peaked the chart for a while.
Interesting as ever.
I shall return

What is that thing ? caused by factory report ?

Current signs

1)EMA

2) Double candle as a sign of feet on land

3) Inside bar especially good with EMA  

4) Doji as sign of 'turn or continuity'

5)Long Tail candle as a sign of 'stop or go'

6)Big candle as sign of 'move or dead'

7) Room to move and Line to be cleared

8) Hi Hi Lo Lo can be a clue to the next move - in for m of triangle or line

+9) Volume : also useful for valid start / end

Am I using clean chart strategy now ?

GOTCHA !!

This post has been scheduled randomly  to automatically pop up to check if i kept to my promise in using my clean chart strategy.

FEEDBACK : YES ! in sim to warming up after a few weeks of break

Watching paint dry

Alone in front of PC but CL take a breather today....

but....

Back from vacation in Jakarta

Market moves early thse days. Hold

Choppy again

Choppy then late trending

Bad trade? Blame the adrenal cortex

I tried some supplements to help. Standard diet is not helping a wannabe trader

*****

Rogue hormones

Sep 24th 2011

IF THE losses at UBS that surfaced this month were caused by a “rogue” trader, would that make his colleagues stable? Not if research being undertaken by John Coates, a neuroscientist at Cambridge University and a former derivatives trader, is anything to go by. His work suggests that hormones drive investment decisions to a far greater extent than economists or bank executives realise. When traders are on a winning streak, their testosterone levels surge, sparking such euphoria that they underestimate risk. When they are acutely stressed, the adrenal cortex produces a flood of cortisol, a hormone that can make them overly fearful and risk-averse.

Mr Coates says he was drawn to study these biochemical processes because he wanted to understand the “unbelievably powerful emotions” that make traders “go crazy”. In past experiments conducted on a London trading floor, Mr Coates saw cortisol levels in traders’ saliva jump by as much as 500% in a day. Remarkably, cortisol increased in direct correlation to implied volatility, a measure of expected future variance in asset prices. “The uncertainty is almost worse than the shock itself,” says Mr Coates. “It’s always a lot worse not knowing where the goddamn monster is.”

Cortisol prepares humans for danger, partly by helping the brain retrieve important memories. This early-warning system is invaluable in the wild. But raging hormones can eventually wreck investors’ ability to think rationally. Chronic stress over weeks or months can produce so much cortisol that the brain focuses excessively on negative memories and perceives threats where they do not exist. This loss of judgment is exacerbated by other symptoms of stress, such as sleep deprivation.

Mr Coates likens this condition to the state of “learned helplessness” identified in the 1960s by Martin Seligman, a psychologist who delivered random electric shocks to dogs constrained in harnesses. Eventually the animals lost the will to escape, even once they could do so.

Traders and rodents also seem to have something in common. Place a rat in an open field and its fear is obvious. Although visible symptoms of anxiety gradually disappear its cortisol levels remain elevated, showing that it is more stressed than it looks. Mr Coates has seen a similar phenomenon among traders. In questionnaires they displayed no awareness of the rampant stress indicated by their cortisol measurements.

One way to reduce the financial havoc these hormones might wreak could be for trading desks to hire more women. Women have about 10% as much testosterone as men, making them less prone to irrational exuberance. Competitive situations do not activate women’s cortisol response with such intensity, so market mayhem is less likely to impair their judgment. Call it a hormonal-diversification strategy

Set Fire to the 'Oil

Exp set Up

Potential Set up

Market moved early, so I learned an experimental setup + other 2 charts

enough theory - lesson, sometimes CL is unpredictable..market moves maybe due to news ?
PS: Yes, Gas Report at 10.30 !

and the final chart before going to sleep 23.27pm Malaysia

Good Trend Day ,,,but...

I confused with ema white position - had to relied on DB and DT and 2 emas only  in future. ema white to be deleted

Wed/Thu should be a good trend day even though has EIA rep

Market building a trend, but still wimpy today.

p.s missed that horiz SR line near that unperfect setup. Aided by hor SR, this should be solid setup after green candle closed.

New CLN2 - Choppy

Reaarranged chart MTF

now I have daily,30m, 15m,5m,3m, 2m, 1m CL naked charts with 3emas and drawn lines.
as I intend to chase 1 good trend instead scalping, I forego the tick chart variant.
stretched 1 chart across 2 monitors to have that vista look :) and can be reverted to 1 screen chart if needed by 1 clik.
No second chart to distract me at any 1 time.

I dont have many bullets left, so current mental and physical preparation are ideal

Friday session is time off, c u next Monday.

Roger and out

Chart time frames are more important than trading set up

Revised TradingRichF = Positive Visualisation*  (Mindset)+ compression/expansion +HiHiLoLo/SR/ema + LongTail/Doji/Inside bar + Chart Time/Tick/Volume Frame + Auto Stop -Loss (Physical)

The reason is this,  in yesterday's session my best setup exactly shown in 2min, but nowhere in my current  1min, 200t, 5 min...DUH

An analogy to a sniper :

Setup is the target position and its behaviour
Lot is the bullet, account is the magazine
DOM is the long range rifle.
Chart Time frame is the magnifying telescope.

Imagined if the sniper' s rifle has NO suitable telescope > then  he is NOT a sniper anymore

So yesterday lesson : Chart time frames are more important than trading set up...

2 respected traders mentioned that yesterday CL was tough to trade but for me it was easy peanut IF I applied the right time frame...the right telescope magnifying power.

Another lesson : Trading is very induvidual thing, but this lesson is well-known

* Positive Visualiasation is good for me as I'm not so jumpy during last 2 sessions as I strive for my best setup only. Before this, I wonder why I took some lousy setups...so its shows the benefit of PV 

The TradingRich formula is not E=mc2

But this is :

TradingRichF = compression/expansion +HiHiLoLo/SR/ema + LongTail/Doji/Inside bar

Ha Ha

1 min & 5 min contradict -> choppy

Visualization & Succesful trading

Article from the Saturday Ticket


Visualization: How Closing Your Eyes Could Make You A Better Athlete



Bubba Watson won this year's Masters on the strength of a 155-foot gap wedge shot, hit out of the pine straw, that hooked 40 yards to land on the green he couldn't even see.

It was one of the most spectacular shots ever made at Augusta. It was a shot that seemed to defy all physical logic. But to Watson, who has never had a golf lesson in his life, it made perfect sense. Prior to stepping up to make his shot, he visualized the outcome. Exactly.

"I just got into the trees, saw a crazy shot in my head, and now I'm wearing the Green Jacket," Watson said afterwards.

Sheesh, if only it was that easy for the rest of us.

Truth is, Watson is among a growing number of athletes who use visualization and imagery to create successful outcomes. Amateur and professional athletes alike are embracing the latest developments in scientific research to feel better about themselves, to improve their confidence, which in turn enhances their performance.

The use of visualization is particularly prominent in sports such as golf and tennis, as well as individual Olympic sports such as gymnastics and track and field. Jack Nicklaus, who has won more than 100 PGA tournaments, admits he has never hit a shot - not even in practice - without first visualizing its outcome. Tiger Woods, legendary for his mechanical approach to his swing, has long embraced visualization. Michael Jordan and Michael Phelps are other athletes who have spoken openly about the benefits of visualization.

Visualization at its most basic level is a learned technique where a person closes their eyes and actually imagines themselves succeeding in a particular situation. Essentially, they are watching themselves from afar. An athlete, for a example, might picture watching their performance on television. Imagery, by comparison, is an extension of visualization where an individual imagines a successful outcome from their own point of view using all five senses. The more detail they incorporate, the greater their chance of being successful. A golfer, for instance, would imagine not only making a great shot, but the euphoric feeling of walking up the green as the crowd cheers enthusiastically.

"The use of visualization and imagery does not guarantee success, but it guarantees the chance to be successful" said Dr. Paul Dennis, one of Canada's most renowned sports psychologists."If an athlete is struggling mentally, if they've lost confidence and are not feeling good about themselves, then they have no chance."

Dennis has been teaching visualization and imagery techniques to amateur and professional athletes for more than two decades. He spent 20 years as the player development coach with the Toronto Maple Leafs where he worked closely with players to help them reach their potential. Dennis has also worked with Canada's World Junior Hockey team to help young players deal with the incredible pressure of performing on such a large scale. He now teaches sports psychology at the University of Toronto where he researches the latest advancements in the field.

"I train athletes to use visualization and imagery, but ultimately it comes down to what an athlete needs at a particular time," said Dennis. "As an example, when I worked for the Leafs, I worked with players based on their unique roles on the team. Some players found value in imaging the finer points of a game, such as winning a faceoff, or picking up their man in the neutral zone, while other players imaged themselves breaking down the right wing and beating a goalie with a slap shot in the top corner," he said.

"The idea was to create an expectation of success in their mind based on them experiencing the emotions associated with success."

Mike Cammalleri, now with the Calgary Flames, is famous for his use of visualization and imagery. During the Montreal Canadiens 'playoff run in 2010, television cameras caught Cammalleri sitting on the players bench a couple of hours before a game, his eyes closed and head moving from side to side. He scored a two goals in that game and later revealed he was imaging his success. Cammalleri scored 13 goals in 19 games that Spring.

Amazingly, research has found that the brain uses the exact same process during visualization and imagery as it does performing a particular task. There is absolutely no difference in brain function when visualizing success as there is in achieving it.

Virtually all Olympic athletes now incorporate some form of visualization into their training routine. Peter Vidmar and Tim Daggett, American gymnasts, were among the first to realize success using it. For years, they ended their workouts by imaging a perfect routine, actually hearing the roar of the crowd and the sound of the American anthem as they stood on the gold medal podium, next to the Chinese team, who were heavily favoured to win gold. During the 1984 Olympics, the exact scene played itself out as the American team won the gold medal in front of an appreciative home crowd.

In professional sports, athletes are way ahead of the curve when it comes to using psychology to their advantage than coaches. Most coaches are still old school, clinging to the idea that their players are well-oiled robotic machines. They don't exactly reject advances in sports psychology, but they are so concerned with X's and O's that often neglect a player's psychological needs, leaving it to player development coaches like Dennis.

In professional hockey, only a handful of coaches are on the cutting edge of sports psychology. Tampa Bay coach Guy Boucher is one of them, as is Nashville's Barry Trotz and Dallas Eakins, who coaches the AHL's Toronto Marlies.

But with so many players turning to sports psychologists for an extra edge, it's only a matter of time before coaches and general managers alter their motivational approach. After all, if a southerner named Bubba can win the Masters because he saw himself making an improbable shot, then perhaps there really is something to visualization stuff.
********

ps. from VV

I spoke about Bubba a few weeks ago right after the Masters about this very shot.

Interesting how this very technique could be very effective in trading

500T Chart - can use Inside bar set up ?

As EIA yesterday up, mkt want to long today

EIA Report - no trade - just recorded thought

Chart uploading test

This chart was captured using free software and uploaded. Previously chart were directly  pasted from Sierra. After 2 marathon sessions. market quite choppy today

p.s. market down to 95.52 as predicted then bounced back

Long Tail Break Top