Wednesday, 30 June 2010
Weekly SIM Profit = 180
Actually i got more but I have discounted the sim profits as off record.
I'll wait till I get 300 weekly sim profit before real trading begins
I'll wait till I get 300 weekly sim profit before real trading begins
Wednesday, 23 June 2010
If capital is 5000 , Weekly profit 300 will lead to...
| The Power Of Money Management | ||||||
| Starting Date | 07/01/10 | |||||
| “Delta” | $5,000.00 | i.e. increase # contracts after making | $5,000.00 | per contract | ||
| Initial Capital | $5,000.00 | |||||
| Weekly Goal | $300.00 | per contract | ||||
| Money Management | ||||||
| Every | 16.6666667 | weeks increase the number of contracts | ||||
| Phase | Phase Start Date | Contracts Traded | Profit/Week | Profit/Phase | Account Size (End of Phase) | Account Growth in % |
| 1 | 07/01/10 | 1 | $300.00 | $5,000.00 | $10,000.00 | 100.00% |
| 2 | 10/25/10 | 2 | $600.00 | $10,000.00 | $20,000.00 | 300.00% |
| 3 | 02/19/11 | 3 | $900.00 | $15,000.00 | $35,000.00 | 600.00% |
| 4 | 06/16/11 | 4 | $1,200.00 | $20,000.00 | $55,000.00 | 1000.00% |
| 5 | 10/10/11 | 5 | $1,500.00 | $25,000.00 | $80,000.00 | 1500.00% |
| 6 | 02/04/12 | 6 | $1,800.00 | $30,000.00 | $110,000.00 | 2100.00% |
| 7 | 05/31/12 | 7 | $2,100.00 | $35,000.00 | $145,000.00 | 2800.00% |
| 8 | 09/24/12 | 8 | $2,400.00 | $40,000.00 | $185,000.00 | 3600.00% |
Uncertain Trading Mind With Certain Trading Rules( UTMWCTR)
Today I get this lesson of trading: It came in flash to my mind... To be a successful trader I must have ""Uncertain Trading Mind With Certain Trading Rules( UTMWCTR)"".
In other words - don't have opinion, let market dictates, don't chase the market etc
Paradox is it ?
Quote from internet:
""Successful traders embrace uncertainty, they realize they don't need to know what will happen next. Basically they are rigid in their rules and flexible with their expectations.
One excellent article about this issue is written by Ziad , but of course you need a certain trading rules to begin. He wrote it to Michael Brenke. http://brenketrading.blogspot.com/
***********************
Hi Michael,
I've been reading your blog for quite a while now but haven't commented yet. However, I feel I need to comment now.
If you don't mind I'm going to be very straight forward, and blunt even, but I hope you'll take it from a spirit of sincerity and genuine desire to help. It's going to be a long comment, so I'm going to break it up into 2 or 3 comments.
Here's the situation as I see it: For the last few months, and possibly much longer, you've just been spinning your wheels while thinking that you are getting somewhere. The reason for this is that you are going about learning how to trade in the wrong way, in my opinion. I say this because I've been trading much less than you, a little over 2 years now, and yet because of the way I went about learning and what I focused on, last year I netted $150k while nearly quintupling my account, without a single losing month, and while only risking a very small portion of my account on any single trade. Now there could be many reasons for the difference in performance, but I think one of the main reasons has to do with what you are focusing on and how you are going about the learning process.
To try to put it as succinctly as possible, in my view traders that are focusing all their attention on "set-ups" and finding out which combinations of indicators work are never going to become profitable. They are trying to follow the advice of trading books that say trading is simple and psychology is everything. So they search for set-ups that 'work', and that can take the guess work out of trading. They want to be "disciplined" and have simple rules that guide all their actions. But there's a few problems with this. Namely, while psychology is HUGE, it's not everything. And while trading is all about simple principles, actually having an edge is NOT simple. It's a myth that you can have a couple simple price or indicator set-ups and make money consistently if only you are disciplined. That's a load of crap. It keeps the dream alive for wannabe traders who never realize what it's truly about. Well let me tell you what it's truly about...
Trading is about being okay with ambiguity. It's about tolerating confusion. It's about sitting with discomfort and being at peace with it. It's about not having an exact script of when to trade or not to trade, or what's really a high odds trade, and being okay with that. It's about exceptions to the rules. It's about contradiction. It's about uncertainty.
And yet traders left and right want to make it simple. They want to reduce it to a few simple set-ups to trade with discipline. And yet the market is not simple. The market is all about uncertainty, and complexity, and ambiguity. Simple set-ups could never capture that, and they can never give you a true lasting edge.
So what's the solution? Is the problem in the simple set-ups themselves? No, it's in how they're being used. The bottom line is, every trader needs to learn to READ the markets. This means that simple rules will not do. There has to be a synthesis of different elements (whether they be price action, indicators, inter-market themes or whatever), and real-time interpretation must take place. It has to be all about CONTEXT. Once you can read the markets, and don't fool yourself it is a very complex process, then you can choose to employ "simple" set-ups to enter and exit. But the real work will be in interpreting the market to see when you should use which kind of set-up. Seeing a hammer or whatever near a support means nothing unless you've identified the broader picture and gotten a sense of the kind of tactics you should be using, and what the odds are for different scenarios unfolding.
Now I know you, and most traders do this to a certain extent, but your main focus is on the set-ups. It's not on reading the market from minute to minute, hour to hour, figuring out the odds of it doing this or doing that, adapting dynamically, and thinking of trade ideas from all your observation as the day unfolds. Rather, it's waiting for some simple set-up to pop up and then taking it.
Now is it easier emotionally to have clear set-ups to wait for and trade in this simple manner? Absolutely. But who said 'easy' would make you money. If I've learned anything, it's that the market rewards what is hard to do. It's hard to have ambiguity surrounding your market reads. It's hard being uncertain. It's hard dealing with competing and sometimes conflicting signs. And yet, this is what it's all about. You have to stop trying to avoid this by needing things to be clear cut. And is it hard to be disciplined when there's so much uncertainty about what is the right trade to make? Of course. But instead of trying to avoid the uncertainty by looking for simple set-ups, or some straight-forward method, train your mind to be able to deal with the uncertainty.
As for the learning process of how you go about doing this, it's all about being constantly engaged with the markets, trying to figure things out and learn from experience. For me, for instance, what I did was each and every day take notes in a journal all about market action and what I think it means, and how I should trade, and what is working and what's not. I didn't write a journal describing the trades I took, or what my emotions were during the day. It was all about market action. And it was all my perception and interpretation. Day after day, week after week, making mistakes, wrong calls, being clueless as to what was going on, not knowing how I should trade, not knowing if my views made sense or not, and yet I continued taking notes and learning. Then I would view charts and combinations of historical intraday charts, and I'd note certain behavior. For example, I'd study trend day after trend day and try to notice what they had in common and how I could have picked up on it in real time. Then I'd study range days. Then I'd study a price chart of the ES versus the Advance decline line and see what the relationship was across many different days. Then I'd do the same with the ES and TICK chart. And on and on. Over time, this gave me a feel for the markets, and a certain understanding of how certain days differ and many subtle signs and tells for each type of environment and context.
As for set-ups, I didn't use any predefined ones. I just formed trading ideas and then tried to get in at good trade locations. Even this, which is the art of execution, is quite complicated and not straight forward. I started realizing that in some environments it's best to wait for pullbacks, in others I need to get in at market or I'll be left in the dust. In some markets I can buy low and sell high, in other markets the opposite is in order. And so on.
I became consistently profitable in a timeframe of a few months by doing this. But of course before that I had read 30 or 40 books and so I had all the technical background. I had also worked a lot on my psychology and personal issues. But all of this was in conjunction with a method of learning and trading the markets that was mostly in opposition to what the general wisdom says about simple set-ups and exact rules.
Now of course you might say that everyone has their own style, some discretionary and some not. Absolutely. But even the purely mechanical traders are very adept at reading markets, and are aware of all of the complexity and ambiguity inherent in it. Their system might end up being simple, but it will come about through a very deep and complex understanding of markets. And usually this system will take the market environment (i.e. context) into account. It wont just be simple mindless set-ups.
In the end, all of what I am saying is meaningless unless you come to a personal realization. Take a look at your trading career thus far. Do you truly believe that if you just learn to focus and take all of your set-ups then your equity curve will reverse and you'll be a consistently profitable trader? Why would the world's top institutions spend millions and billions on R&D when a few simple set-ups could make them all of the money. This doesn't mean that to make money you need extremely complex mathematical models. Far from it. What it does mean is that you need extremely complex mental maps that take time and experience to develop, and that will never develop if you spend the whole trading day simply waiting for set-ups to materialize. That just won't cut it.
Right now your learning curve is stagnant because you're not truly studying the markets. Your day is wasted in waiting mode. It's not in observing and absorbing mode. Also, because you fear loss, you aren't willing to experiment. This means that you aren't making mistakes and failing regularly, which is what you need to do to learn quickly.
So to conclude, based on all of the above, my advice to you would be to stop trading and make a mental shift. Realize what you need to do to become successful, and it's definitely not staying on this endlessly unfruitful path being supported by the hope of future profits. You're just running in your place unless you change your focus and your learning method. And if you thought the journey was tough so far, you haven't seen anything yet. Get ready for uncertainty and ambiguity like you've never seen it before. But this shouldn't be scary. It should be exciting, because this is what trading is all about. This is why it's called an ART. And it truly becomes one when you change your focus and your learning process. Then everything, including success, becomes possible. And until then, it'll be a distant dream that keeps appearing to be so close and yet stays so far away.
So you need to re-align with a new thought system and then get on the simulator and trade. Take losses. Make mistakes. Be clueless. Don't be afraid of it. It's okay, that's the only way you'll progress. And trust me, progress you will.
Best of luck to you, and I wish you much success.
Ziad
In other words - don't have opinion, let market dictates, don't chase the market etc
Paradox is it ?
Quote from internet:
""Successful traders embrace uncertainty, they realize they don't need to know what will happen next. Basically they are rigid in their rules and flexible with their expectations.
One excellent article about this issue is written by Ziad , but of course you need a certain trading rules to begin. He wrote it to Michael Brenke. http://brenketrading.blogspot.com/
***********************
Hi Michael,
I've been reading your blog for quite a while now but haven't commented yet. However, I feel I need to comment now.
If you don't mind I'm going to be very straight forward, and blunt even, but I hope you'll take it from a spirit of sincerity and genuine desire to help. It's going to be a long comment, so I'm going to break it up into 2 or 3 comments.
Here's the situation as I see it: For the last few months, and possibly much longer, you've just been spinning your wheels while thinking that you are getting somewhere. The reason for this is that you are going about learning how to trade in the wrong way, in my opinion. I say this because I've been trading much less than you, a little over 2 years now, and yet because of the way I went about learning and what I focused on, last year I netted $150k while nearly quintupling my account, without a single losing month, and while only risking a very small portion of my account on any single trade. Now there could be many reasons for the difference in performance, but I think one of the main reasons has to do with what you are focusing on and how you are going about the learning process.
To try to put it as succinctly as possible, in my view traders that are focusing all their attention on "set-ups" and finding out which combinations of indicators work are never going to become profitable. They are trying to follow the advice of trading books that say trading is simple and psychology is everything. So they search for set-ups that 'work', and that can take the guess work out of trading. They want to be "disciplined" and have simple rules that guide all their actions. But there's a few problems with this. Namely, while psychology is HUGE, it's not everything. And while trading is all about simple principles, actually having an edge is NOT simple. It's a myth that you can have a couple simple price or indicator set-ups and make money consistently if only you are disciplined. That's a load of crap. It keeps the dream alive for wannabe traders who never realize what it's truly about. Well let me tell you what it's truly about...
Trading is about being okay with ambiguity. It's about tolerating confusion. It's about sitting with discomfort and being at peace with it. It's about not having an exact script of when to trade or not to trade, or what's really a high odds trade, and being okay with that. It's about exceptions to the rules. It's about contradiction. It's about uncertainty.
And yet traders left and right want to make it simple. They want to reduce it to a few simple set-ups to trade with discipline. And yet the market is not simple. The market is all about uncertainty, and complexity, and ambiguity. Simple set-ups could never capture that, and they can never give you a true lasting edge.
So what's the solution? Is the problem in the simple set-ups themselves? No, it's in how they're being used. The bottom line is, every trader needs to learn to READ the markets. This means that simple rules will not do. There has to be a synthesis of different elements (whether they be price action, indicators, inter-market themes or whatever), and real-time interpretation must take place. It has to be all about CONTEXT. Once you can read the markets, and don't fool yourself it is a very complex process, then you can choose to employ "simple" set-ups to enter and exit. But the real work will be in interpreting the market to see when you should use which kind of set-up. Seeing a hammer or whatever near a support means nothing unless you've identified the broader picture and gotten a sense of the kind of tactics you should be using, and what the odds are for different scenarios unfolding.
Now I know you, and most traders do this to a certain extent, but your main focus is on the set-ups. It's not on reading the market from minute to minute, hour to hour, figuring out the odds of it doing this or doing that, adapting dynamically, and thinking of trade ideas from all your observation as the day unfolds. Rather, it's waiting for some simple set-up to pop up and then taking it.
Now is it easier emotionally to have clear set-ups to wait for and trade in this simple manner? Absolutely. But who said 'easy' would make you money. If I've learned anything, it's that the market rewards what is hard to do. It's hard to have ambiguity surrounding your market reads. It's hard being uncertain. It's hard dealing with competing and sometimes conflicting signs. And yet, this is what it's all about. You have to stop trying to avoid this by needing things to be clear cut. And is it hard to be disciplined when there's so much uncertainty about what is the right trade to make? Of course. But instead of trying to avoid the uncertainty by looking for simple set-ups, or some straight-forward method, train your mind to be able to deal with the uncertainty.
As for the learning process of how you go about doing this, it's all about being constantly engaged with the markets, trying to figure things out and learn from experience. For me, for instance, what I did was each and every day take notes in a journal all about market action and what I think it means, and how I should trade, and what is working and what's not. I didn't write a journal describing the trades I took, or what my emotions were during the day. It was all about market action. And it was all my perception and interpretation. Day after day, week after week, making mistakes, wrong calls, being clueless as to what was going on, not knowing how I should trade, not knowing if my views made sense or not, and yet I continued taking notes and learning. Then I would view charts and combinations of historical intraday charts, and I'd note certain behavior. For example, I'd study trend day after trend day and try to notice what they had in common and how I could have picked up on it in real time. Then I'd study range days. Then I'd study a price chart of the ES versus the Advance decline line and see what the relationship was across many different days. Then I'd do the same with the ES and TICK chart. And on and on. Over time, this gave me a feel for the markets, and a certain understanding of how certain days differ and many subtle signs and tells for each type of environment and context.
As for set-ups, I didn't use any predefined ones. I just formed trading ideas and then tried to get in at good trade locations. Even this, which is the art of execution, is quite complicated and not straight forward. I started realizing that in some environments it's best to wait for pullbacks, in others I need to get in at market or I'll be left in the dust. In some markets I can buy low and sell high, in other markets the opposite is in order. And so on.
I became consistently profitable in a timeframe of a few months by doing this. But of course before that I had read 30 or 40 books and so I had all the technical background. I had also worked a lot on my psychology and personal issues. But all of this was in conjunction with a method of learning and trading the markets that was mostly in opposition to what the general wisdom says about simple set-ups and exact rules.
Now of course you might say that everyone has their own style, some discretionary and some not. Absolutely. But even the purely mechanical traders are very adept at reading markets, and are aware of all of the complexity and ambiguity inherent in it. Their system might end up being simple, but it will come about through a very deep and complex understanding of markets. And usually this system will take the market environment (i.e. context) into account. It wont just be simple mindless set-ups.
In the end, all of what I am saying is meaningless unless you come to a personal realization. Take a look at your trading career thus far. Do you truly believe that if you just learn to focus and take all of your set-ups then your equity curve will reverse and you'll be a consistently profitable trader? Why would the world's top institutions spend millions and billions on R&D when a few simple set-ups could make them all of the money. This doesn't mean that to make money you need extremely complex mathematical models. Far from it. What it does mean is that you need extremely complex mental maps that take time and experience to develop, and that will never develop if you spend the whole trading day simply waiting for set-ups to materialize. That just won't cut it.
Right now your learning curve is stagnant because you're not truly studying the markets. Your day is wasted in waiting mode. It's not in observing and absorbing mode. Also, because you fear loss, you aren't willing to experiment. This means that you aren't making mistakes and failing regularly, which is what you need to do to learn quickly.
So to conclude, based on all of the above, my advice to you would be to stop trading and make a mental shift. Realize what you need to do to become successful, and it's definitely not staying on this endlessly unfruitful path being supported by the hope of future profits. You're just running in your place unless you change your focus and your learning method. And if you thought the journey was tough so far, you haven't seen anything yet. Get ready for uncertainty and ambiguity like you've never seen it before. But this shouldn't be scary. It should be exciting, because this is what trading is all about. This is why it's called an ART. And it truly becomes one when you change your focus and your learning process. Then everything, including success, becomes possible. And until then, it'll be a distant dream that keeps appearing to be so close and yet stays so far away.
So you need to re-align with a new thought system and then get on the simulator and trade. Take losses. Make mistakes. Be clueless. Don't be afraid of it. It's okay, that's the only way you'll progress. And trust me, progress you will.
Best of luck to you, and I wish you much success.
Ziad
Tuesday, 22 June 2010
the 3 M: Market structure, Me and Money
| http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=57639 member |
Technical Analysis Fallacy Apologies
-no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets.
-"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose"
Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt.
Since the late 70s and into the millinium.
Many "engineers" have made public, their inventions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the forefront to sell their research findings. To name a few,
The Grand daddy being Charles Dow and his Dow theory which later lead to the creation of the Dow Jones Indexes.
Rene Descarte who introduced the Spiral studies.
Leonardo Da vincci who fostered the fabonacci principles,
W.D. Gann, who introduced Cyclic Studies of Squaring time and price.
R.N.Elliot, who introduced the Elliot Wave Studies
W.Wilders.Who introduced the mathematics of calculating overbought and oversold markets by his introduction of the DI+,DI-, ADX lines and the Relative Strength Index.
The Stocastics, MACDs, ……………………………...etc
If one was to impliment all these studies onto their charts. What you will see is a beautiful piece of art, displaying very impressive hog wash, that do nothing but dazzle the uninitiated. If anything else it 'll confuse you even more.
Then you have the charting specialist who have introduced many ways to chart eg,
Linear Charts, HiLoClose Bar Charts, Japanese candlestick charts, Point & Figuring, John Hill's Bar Chart congestion & reversal patterns, reverse point waves, pivots, fractuals, ………..etc
Today, we find lots of originally and mutated techniques and methodologies available to the Chartist or Technicians.
What many fail to realise, is that all these studies, basically are statistical tables plotted in graphic form to present a "picture" to assist traders in their decision process. The maxim being, that a picture tells a thousand words.
"It is not theirs (the charts) to reason why,
But to signal Sell or Buy,
For the traders to do or die,
Hoping that the signal does not lie,
I would, from my many years of studies, go so far as to say, that they all work, some more than others but they all do serve a purpose. (to give traders, the "guts" to do or die)
If I may borrow from the quotes of Sir Winston Chirchill.
"That you can lie to some people all the time, all people some of the time, but not to all people, all the time."
Similarly, theses studies can work in some market conditions all the time, all market conditions some of the time, but not all market conditions all of the time."
Think about what I've just quoted very carefully.
The problem with some people and some professional Technical Analyst today ( being a certified Technical Analyst myself ) is that they use the Technical studies as if, it were the "Holy Grail" of trading & their pathway to the millions.
How far that is from the truth.
Any person with a good brain on their shoulders, will ultimate come to the realisation that these are just tools. Tools that are built on historical and lagging databases. Moreover the rigidity of the parameters used in the studies imposes rigid responses to changing market conditions. Have we forgotten that the market is a live beast that learns and adapts to trader behaviours? Many have forgotten that the market is the sum total of the behaviour of the participants engaged in the market place. These tools are used for measuring the markets health, not so unlike the thermometer to a doctor, or the measuring tape to a carpenter, just a tool.
Then how is it possible that these studies themselves can be considered the "Holy Grail"?
It may be due to ignorance (being new and uniniatiated), lazyness, or just plain stubborness ( a little knowledge is a dangerous thing). Of course it is not nice for me, to tell you about those who have "a little knowledge", trying to scam those who know less than them. That's another story.
Some do so, because of a very new disease discovered recently, the sickness of "the chance".
If you use the Technical studies as your "Holy Grail", I have only one word for you, GAMBLER.
I put it to you, that, to consider your Technical Studies to be more than what they are is a "fallacy" in trading the markets, not so unlike martingale gamblers' fallacy. It can lead you to a very dark place.
What many traders do not know, or may fail to recognise, is that your success in taming the markets, is comprised of a mix of ingredients. Not so unlike in baking cakes.
I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation. Of course there are many more components, for the moment these seems of dominant importance, in my humble opinion.
I hope you will think about what I've said very carefully.
I shall try to push these doors ajar for you slowly to show you the light at the end of the tunnel (please hope its no on-coming train), God willing.
regards
-no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets.
-"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose"
Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt.
Since the late 70s and into the millinium.
Many "engineers" have made public, their inventions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the forefront to sell their research findings. To name a few,
The Grand daddy being Charles Dow and his Dow theory which later lead to the creation of the Dow Jones Indexes.
Rene Descarte who introduced the Spiral studies.
Leonardo Da vincci who fostered the fabonacci principles,
W.D. Gann, who introduced Cyclic Studies of Squaring time and price.
R.N.Elliot, who introduced the Elliot Wave Studies
W.Wilders.Who introduced the mathematics of calculating overbought and oversold markets by his introduction of the DI+,DI-, ADX lines and the Relative Strength Index.
The Stocastics, MACDs, ……………………………...etc
If one was to impliment all these studies onto their charts. What you will see is a beautiful piece of art, displaying very impressive hog wash, that do nothing but dazzle the uninitiated. If anything else it 'll confuse you even more.
Then you have the charting specialist who have introduced many ways to chart eg,
Linear Charts, HiLoClose Bar Charts, Japanese candlestick charts, Point & Figuring, John Hill's Bar Chart congestion & reversal patterns, reverse point waves, pivots, fractuals, ………..etc
Today, we find lots of originally and mutated techniques and methodologies available to the Chartist or Technicians.
What many fail to realise, is that all these studies, basically are statistical tables plotted in graphic form to present a "picture" to assist traders in their decision process. The maxim being, that a picture tells a thousand words.
"It is not theirs (the charts) to reason why,
But to signal Sell or Buy,
For the traders to do or die,
Hoping that the signal does not lie,
I would, from my many years of studies, go so far as to say, that they all work, some more than others but they all do serve a purpose. (to give traders, the "guts" to do or die)
If I may borrow from the quotes of Sir Winston Chirchill.
"That you can lie to some people all the time, all people some of the time, but not to all people, all the time."
Similarly, theses studies can work in some market conditions all the time, all market conditions some of the time, but not all market conditions all of the time."
Think about what I've just quoted very carefully.
The problem with some people and some professional Technical Analyst today ( being a certified Technical Analyst myself ) is that they use the Technical studies as if, it were the "Holy Grail" of trading & their pathway to the millions.
How far that is from the truth.
Any person with a good brain on their shoulders, will ultimate come to the realisation that these are just tools. Tools that are built on historical and lagging databases. Moreover the rigidity of the parameters used in the studies imposes rigid responses to changing market conditions. Have we forgotten that the market is a live beast that learns and adapts to trader behaviours? Many have forgotten that the market is the sum total of the behaviour of the participants engaged in the market place. These tools are used for measuring the markets health, not so unlike the thermometer to a doctor, or the measuring tape to a carpenter, just a tool.
Then how is it possible that these studies themselves can be considered the "Holy Grail"?
It may be due to ignorance (being new and uniniatiated), lazyness, or just plain stubborness ( a little knowledge is a dangerous thing). Of course it is not nice for me, to tell you about those who have "a little knowledge", trying to scam those who know less than them. That's another story.
Some do so, because of a very new disease discovered recently, the sickness of "the chance".
If you use the Technical studies as your "Holy Grail", I have only one word for you, GAMBLER.
I put it to you, that, to consider your Technical Studies to be more than what they are is a "fallacy" in trading the markets, not so unlike martingale gamblers' fallacy. It can lead you to a very dark place.
What many traders do not know, or may fail to recognise, is that your success in taming the markets, is comprised of a mix of ingredients. Not so unlike in baking cakes.
I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation. Of course there are many more components, for the moment these seems of dominant importance, in my humble opinion.
I hope you will think about what I've said very carefully.
I shall try to push these doors ajar for you slowly to show you the light at the end of the tunnel (please hope its no on-coming train), God willing.
regards
Last edited by fti, Jun 20, 2010 4:43pm (31 hr ago
Monday, 21 June 2010
Relocated to the new trading room
I went over to the roof to connect the new cable after my tephone service provider told me the many red tapes that I should follow. I connected the wire myself even though I scared of height.
I had convinced my self that I'm that serious to online trading!
The new room has a nice cool night breeze than I hope will calm my nerve when trading.
****************
I need a new wire (done)
I need to call technician (done)
I had convinced my self that I'm that serious to online trading!
The new room has a nice cool night breeze than I hope will calm my nerve when trading.
****************
I need a new wire (done)
I need to call technician (done)
I need to dismantle a single bed (done) and drill a hole for the ADSL cable (failed effort, the wall is too tough for the drill, so I have to use the window ..he he)
I need to relocate computer (done)
I need to buy another screen
I need a big poster of Hawaii :-) Oh no bikini, just palm trees at the beach
I need a colour printer to print charts and stick em on the wall ( I think the printer is very important -- traders, like other people... tend to forget)
I need to relocate computer (done)
I need to buy another screen
I need a big poster of Hawaii :-) Oh no bikini, just palm trees at the beach
I need a colour printer to print charts and stick em on the wall ( I think the printer is very important -- traders, like other people... tend to forget)
Sunday, 13 June 2010
STRATEGY is what will dictate what your account size
Taken from BM forum for my reference:
http://www.bigmiketrading.com/psychology-money-management/3649-primary-source-income-how-many-have-made-5.html
Account Size "The Magic Number"
http://www.bigmiketrading.com/psychology-money-management/3649-primary-source-income-how-many-have-made-5.html
Account Size "The Magic Number"
I do and DONT understand the fixation on account size. At the end it all boils down to "profitability/drawdown/trade opportunity/risk/money management".
For example:
Starting Account Size $5,000
Average trades per day = 10 to keep it simple
70% wins 30% losses
Average Loser 8 ticks
Average Winner 6 ticks.
Statistically on average the results would be as follows
1. Win 5
2. Win 6
3. Lose 8
4. Win 4
5. Lose 8
6. Win 6
7. Win 5
8. Lose 8
9. Win 6
10. Win 4
Thats a net win on average of 12 ticks per 10 trades.
Lets say half a tick ($5) of commission per trade and you have:
GROSS PROFIT: 12 Ticks
COMMISSIONS: 1/2tick x 10 trades = 5 ticks
NET PROFIT: 7 ticks
$70 net profit on an account of $5000 is 1.4% per day !
MORAL OF THE STORY:
Account size protects against the risk of ruin, and effects the number of contracts traded but has NOTHING to do with the Expectancy/Profitability of the strategy.
Your STRATEGY is what will dictate what your account size can be.
Obviously the sample size of 10 is very very small and does not represent the real life scenario of say 8 losers in a row.
So a drawdown of (8 x $80) = $640 is likely. But even in that case the drawdown on a $5,000 account is only 12.8% ( $640/$5000)
If you are netting on average 0.7 ticks per trade it would take you about 92 trades ($640 drawdown/ $7 per trade average win) to get back to even.
If the system generates 10 trades a day its about 2 weeks (10 trading days) to get back to even.
ACCOUNT SIZE MATTERS, don't get me wrong.
But telling people they need a $50,000 account is as crazy as telling someone they need one of those fire fighting helicopters with the giant bucket of water to fill a swimming pool.
A garden hose will do just fine. It just takes a bit longer
My 2 cents!
Jungian
For example:
Starting Account Size $5,000
Average trades per day = 10 to keep it simple
70% wins 30% losses
Average Loser 8 ticks
Average Winner 6 ticks.
Statistically on average the results would be as follows
1. Win 5
2. Win 6
3. Lose 8
4. Win 4
5. Lose 8
6. Win 6
7. Win 5
8. Lose 8
9. Win 6
10. Win 4
Thats a net win on average of 12 ticks per 10 trades.
Lets say half a tick ($5) of commission per trade and you have:
GROSS PROFIT: 12 Ticks
COMMISSIONS: 1/2tick x 10 trades = 5 ticks
NET PROFIT: 7 ticks
$70 net profit on an account of $5000 is 1.4% per day !
MORAL OF THE STORY:
Account size protects against the risk of ruin, and effects the number of contracts traded but has NOTHING to do with the Expectancy/Profitability of the strategy.
Your STRATEGY is what will dictate what your account size can be.
Obviously the sample size of 10 is very very small and does not represent the real life scenario of say 8 losers in a row.
So a drawdown of (8 x $80) = $640 is likely. But even in that case the drawdown on a $5,000 account is only 12.8% ( $640/$5000)
If you are netting on average 0.7 ticks per trade it would take you about 92 trades ($640 drawdown/ $7 per trade average win) to get back to even.
If the system generates 10 trades a day its about 2 weeks (10 trading days) to get back to even.
ACCOUNT SIZE MATTERS, don't get me wrong.
But telling people they need a $50,000 account is as crazy as telling someone they need one of those fire fighting helicopters with the giant bucket of water to fill a swimming pool.
A garden hose will do just fine. It just takes a bit longer
My 2 cents!
Jungian
Trading Room checklist
I need a new wire (done)
I need to call technician (done)
I need to call technician (done)
I need to dismantle a single bed (done) and drill a hole for the ADSL cable (failed effort, the wall is too tough for the drill, so I have to use the window ..he he)
I need to relocate computer
I need to buy another screen
I need a big poster of Hawaii :-) Oh no bikini, just palm trees at the beach
I need a colour printer to print charts and stick em on the wall ( I think the printer is very important -- traders, like other people... tend to forget)
I need to relocate computer
I need to buy another screen
I need a big poster of Hawaii :-) Oh no bikini, just palm trees at the beach
I need a colour printer to print charts and stick em on the wall ( I think the printer is very important -- traders, like other people... tend to forget)
Sunday, 6 June 2010
Trading Room Checklist
I need a new wire (done)
I need to call technician (done)
I need to call technician (done)
I need to dismantle a single bed and drill a hole for the ADSL cable
I need to relocate computer
I need to buy another screen
I need a big poster of Hawaii :-) Oh no bikini, just palm trees at the beach
I need a colour printer to print charts and stick em on the wall ( I think the printer is very important -- traders, like other people... tend to forgot)
I need to relocate computer
I need to buy another screen
I need a big poster of Hawaii :-) Oh no bikini, just palm trees at the beach
I need a colour printer to print charts and stick em on the wall ( I think the printer is very important -- traders, like other people... tend to forgot)
Thursday, 3 June 2010
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