Wednesday, 10 March 2010
Friday, 5 March 2010
Fri 5/3
I knew that today will be good for swing trading.
Because today I will be away from the screen to attend old school meeting and yesterday was a zombie market
Because today I will be away from the screen to attend old school meeting and yesterday was a zombie market
Thursday, 4 March 2010
Thu 4/3
CL has early move at 6.30- 7.12NY. after that driftless.
6E GC have about the same pattern.. interesting. But GC has smoother movement
6E GC have about the same pattern.. interesting. But GC has smoother movement
Wednesday, 3 March 2010
Wed 3/3
Listless. choppy market before the report.
Out at 10.00 NY.
Looking for 2nd market: GC or 6E
Out at 10.00 NY.
Looking for 2nd market: GC or 6E
Tuesday, 2 March 2010
Sunday, 28 February 2010
Mastering your method means you're the star
http://www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgboard/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=16;t=001149#000000
It seems to me that the new traders (Novices) get a lot of crap here. I don't want to sound conceded but i was a 40 year professional floor trader in the S&P pits. now (retired) now days i only trade forex.
when i feel like it.
Honestly, if you were to have total freedom to design the most ideal market for short-term trading, your dream market would probably fall short of what the forex has to offer the day trader.
No pit or floor broker involvement.
Tight spreads.
Minimal slippage.
No accounting mine fields.
Hedging opportunities.
Plus, these markets are, and always will be, totally fair. No corruption, no manipulation, no inside trading and no scandals to deal with. That alone is worth the switch from futures and stocks.
I can't understand what all these at home traders are thinking about, it's really amazing to me. I'm not really sure how they think they can buy some trading system, or attend a seminar and instantiy start making money. I've been on the trading floor for a lot of years and i made a lot of money, (I know the trading pits and forex are not the same) If some guy off the street thinks they are going to read some book or attend a seminar over the weekend and be able to take money from me, they are sadly mistaken!
Every guru who told you that their system or methods would make you a lot of money has been lying to you. they promise they can make you a successful trader overnight. How can that be true?? It took me a good solid five years before i started making really good money! And that was on the trading floor being exposed to many profitable traders. How are you going to learn to be successful in a couple of days or weeks with some book or trading system?
All i can say is find your own trading method, and KEEP IT SIMPLE. mastering your method means you're the star. You're in total control of your trades and your financial destiny.
What works for some people may not work for others. this is what works for me.
I am a Day Trader. I use a 1 minute chart of the EUR/USD, because of the tight spread.
2 moving averages. and some times a stochastic. Most traditional methods of trading use multiple time frame charts. the 5-, 10-, and 30 minute charts are all supposed to somehow give us some magical power and accuracy when these charts confirm a certain price movement. The biggest disadvantage of those methods, general, is missing a lot of opportunities.
Take a look at a one-minute chart of the EUR/USD, and you'll notice something. The vast majority of the time, the EUR/USD moves up and down at least 10 points or more every 5 to 20 minutes. For instance, if we have a total 10 point move on a 1 minute chart. I can get in and outof that move and make a 10 points with ease. But,if i wait for a 5 minute chart, etc., by the time it shows the confirmation, guess what? the 10 point move is over! Even if i use a single, five-minute chart, 90% of our signals are never seen.
With multiple time frames, I miss a lot of opportunities to catch the small movements, that could mean a substantial gain, depending on how many pips are being traded.
A single, one-minute chart and two tuned indicators combine forces seek out even the slightest moves in the market and lets me turn them into quick, in-and-out trades.
I don't use pattern recognition methods. candlesticks. I don't try to predict trends or the future, or resistance and support levels, or pivots, when the market moves i move with it.
The best trading hours for me are the first and last two hours of the market. (the london session and New York session).
Thanks for reading my stuff, now maby my wife will get the Hell off of my back.
It seems to me that the new traders (Novices) get a lot of crap here. I don't want to sound conceded but i was a 40 year professional floor trader in the S&P pits. now (retired) now days i only trade forex.
when i feel like it.
Honestly, if you were to have total freedom to design the most ideal market for short-term trading, your dream market would probably fall short of what the forex has to offer the day trader.
No pit or floor broker involvement.
Tight spreads.
Minimal slippage.
No accounting mine fields.
Hedging opportunities.
Plus, these markets are, and always will be, totally fair. No corruption, no manipulation, no inside trading and no scandals to deal with. That alone is worth the switch from futures and stocks.
I can't understand what all these at home traders are thinking about, it's really amazing to me. I'm not really sure how they think they can buy some trading system, or attend a seminar and instantiy start making money. I've been on the trading floor for a lot of years and i made a lot of money, (I know the trading pits and forex are not the same) If some guy off the street thinks they are going to read some book or attend a seminar over the weekend and be able to take money from me, they are sadly mistaken!
Every guru who told you that their system or methods would make you a lot of money has been lying to you. they promise they can make you a successful trader overnight. How can that be true?? It took me a good solid five years before i started making really good money! And that was on the trading floor being exposed to many profitable traders. How are you going to learn to be successful in a couple of days or weeks with some book or trading system?
All i can say is find your own trading method, and KEEP IT SIMPLE. mastering your method means you're the star. You're in total control of your trades and your financial destiny.
What works for some people may not work for others. this is what works for me.
I am a Day Trader. I use a 1 minute chart of the EUR/USD, because of the tight spread.
2 moving averages. and some times a stochastic. Most traditional methods of trading use multiple time frame charts. the 5-, 10-, and 30 minute charts are all supposed to somehow give us some magical power and accuracy when these charts confirm a certain price movement. The biggest disadvantage of those methods, general, is missing a lot of opportunities.
Take a look at a one-minute chart of the EUR/USD, and you'll notice something. The vast majority of the time, the EUR/USD moves up and down at least 10 points or more every 5 to 20 minutes. For instance, if we have a total 10 point move on a 1 minute chart. I can get in and outof that move and make a 10 points with ease. But,if i wait for a 5 minute chart, etc., by the time it shows the confirmation, guess what? the 10 point move is over! Even if i use a single, five-minute chart, 90% of our signals are never seen.
With multiple time frames, I miss a lot of opportunities to catch the small movements, that could mean a substantial gain, depending on how many pips are being traded.
A single, one-minute chart and two tuned indicators combine forces seek out even the slightest moves in the market and lets me turn them into quick, in-and-out trades.
I don't use pattern recognition methods. candlesticks. I don't try to predict trends or the future, or resistance and support levels, or pivots, when the market moves i move with it.
The best trading hours for me are the first and last two hours of the market. (the london session and New York session).
Thanks for reading my stuff, now maby my wife will get the Hell off of my back.
Friday, 26 February 2010
Fired 2 shots
1st shot was breakeven, 2nd shot played according to POP's rule 1...
Even though slightly negative, its according to the System.
I have reason to celebrate,because my aim is TRADING THE SYSTEM, without questions.
Even though slightly negative, its according to the System.
I have reason to celebrate,because my aim is TRADING THE SYSTEM, without questions.
Thursday, 25 February 2010
Curing Frozen Trigger
How about this....
"Role play"
My 3 set ups as 3 different traders
And myself as a broker.
"Role play"
My 3 set ups as 3 different traders
And myself as a broker.
The Art of Growing A Day Trading Account
http://www.sooperarticles.com/finance-articles/day-trading-articles/art-growing-day-trading-account-9918.html
(By Markus)
Traders fail to realize these kinds of results because they let their emotions and desire for quick success get in their way. "Only $600 in 6 weeks" can sound demoralizing. But rather than giving up, he capitalized on what he was doing well and exploited it, making more trades and increasing his contract size. Now, of course, he is thrilled.
But the problem is that this growth takes time to realize. If you start with a profit target of $100, that may seem just like a dinner for two – not the supplemental income most of us want. But as the profit target slowly grows to the equivalent of a washing machine, then to a trip to Las Vegas, and on and on, things get easier to stomach. But day trading profits start out small, and we have to be tough, to endure the slow start and resist the temptation to either make a huge risk or to give up altogether.
There is one and only secret to growing a trading account, and it is something that both I and my student have taken time to realize: patience.
(Markus)
(By Markus)
One of my day trading students told me he was disappointed. He has been trading $10,000 for six weeks, but realized only $600 in profits. He told me that he was considering getting out of day trading because he thought he could make much, much more. After all, $600 in six weeks is only $100 a week, just a fraction of the money he set aside to invest. He could work as a fast food clerk and make more money, so, he thought, why bother with such an inefficient form of income?
I told him he was dead wrong.
When it comes to day trading, consistency is more important than the dollar amount of your profits at any given time. This trader was already making a fortune, but he didn't know it. In fact, he was already an incredibly successful day trader, and I told him that I could likely learn something from him. All he needed to do was recognize that he was making consistent profits, determine where that consistency came from, and then apply those sound money management strategies to achieve stellar results.
We took a look at what he was doing, and I did, in fact, learn from what he was doing. He did, as well. And I want to share that lesson with all potential day traders: learning how to recognize strategies that produce consistent profits, no matter how small, rather than earning profits from individually large trades, is the key to trading success.
This is what we discovered about his plans:
First, $100 per week would amount to $5,200 per year; a 52% return on his account. That's already excellent, but it is only a sign that he could translate those profits into larger gains.
The first way to do that would be to apply sound money management techniques and increase his contract size. He was trading the e-mini S&P, 1 contract at a time. A reasonable plan in this instance would be, according to the money management system promoted by Ryan Jones' Fixed Ratio Money Management Technique. Using this technique, he would increase the number of contracts every $800, or approximately every 8 weeks assuming that he is making consistently $100 per contract per week per contract.
Using these rules, he could hypothetically grow his account from $10,000 to $26,800 in just one
year by consistently increasing the position size and achieving "only" $100 per week per contract. Here's a quick summary of how it would look:
Starting on September 1, with an initial account of $10,000 and a profit per contract of $100, he could make $800 by November 1. If he then put that $800 back into the account, he could now trade 2 contracts, earning a potential $200 per contract for a total o $1,600. If he then put that $1,600 back into the account, he would now have $12,400. So, come January 1, he could start trading contracts, this time expecting $300 for each, with a total profit of $2,400 at the end of the next 8 weeks. If he follows that pattern each 8 weeks, at the end of the year, his account would be $26,800, and he could be trading 7 contracts for a profit of $700 each. Expand that to two years, and his account would grow to $27,400. We're certainly making more than a fast food employee at this point.
Most traders think this kind of growth is impossible, which is unfortunate. The logic is sound: even if a trader would not achieve his goal of making $100 per week and miss it 2-3 weeks in a row, it would simply take a month longer to grow his trading account to $27,400.
But the problem is that this growth takes time to realize. If you start with a profit target of $100, that may seem just like a dinner for two – not the supplemental income most of us want. But as the profit target slowly grows to the equivalent of a washing machine, then to a trip to Las Vegas, and on and on, things get easier to stomach. But day trading profits start out small, and we have to be tough, to endure the slow start and resist the temptation to either make a huge risk or to give up altogether.
Slow increases are the way to successfully and consistently grow your trading account.Start increasing your position size slowly from 1 contract to 2 contracts. Make sure that you are still consistently profitable when trading 2 contracts. And then increase your position size from 2 to 3 contracts when you're ready. Go in single steps, and never "jump" from 2 to 4. Increasing the position size slowly will help your brain to adjust to increasing stop loss and profit amounts, without getting emotional, and it will also you maintain your consistency.
There is one and only secret to growing a trading account, and it is something that both I and my student have taken time to realize: patience.
(Markus)
B) CASE STUDY: Learning from other's experience
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12683&page=5
(By Trembling Hand Trader)
Ok so I'm posting these results with some reluctance. As I said all the results will be verified by a Mod so when the statements come through they will get them.
I need to explain my system a little bit before I continue so as to put todays action in context of how I trade. I have three basic rules to my system,
1. I never want to start the day having to get back more than 1% of my account from the previous days trading. NEVER.
2. I want a system that has few as possible down days.
3. I want to be very aggressive with my trading capital.
Now point 1 and 2 you would think would rule out point 3 but it doesn't have to. This is how I manage to stick to all 3 rules.
Firstly point 2 as I have stated already becasue I trade so often eventually the stats of a positive expectancy, although slight, system works in my favour. I may be down at some points during the day but mostly it works in my favour.
Point 1 I have a daily stop of 1% of capital. If I lose that its over for the day. PERIOD. Now the down side of that is I can easily have 5 losers in a row at the start so I trade very very small to start with so as not to be taken out before the slight positive expectancy has a chance to work in my favour. As I build profit I increase lot size.
(TH)
Wednesday, 24 February 2010
How Many Markets Should You Trade?
http://www.sooperarticles.com/finance-articles/day-trading-articles/how-many-markets-should-you-trade-9914.html
Too often, I hear from traders who insist that they "specialize" in a single market. Although they may feel a sense of comfort and even mastery by trading exclusively in one market, this kind of approach is a serious mistake. As day traders, we are interested in profitable markets. But what defines a profitable market has nothing to do with the kind of market it is; rather, it depends on how it is trending. Consequently, a successful trader should commit him or herself to trading trending markets, no matter what they are.
By limiting yourself to only one market, you limit your chances to profit. There are times when a market is trending and easy to trade, but there are times when markets are just moving sideways. The more markets you watch, the more opportunities you get to locate a trend each and every day. As I like to say, "Finding good trades means de-selecting the bad trades," but you can only stay away from bad trades by having a number of sources of good trades.
You can see the problem with only trading a single market with the following analogy. Let's say that you want some ice cream. You walk to the corner store and ask the lady behind the counter, "Do you have ice cream?" The lady responds, "Sure. What do you want: strawberry or vanilla ice cream?" Actually, you were looking for chocolate ice cream, but since you only have these two flavors to choose from, you compromise and pick the vanilla ice cream. That's not exactly what you were looking for, but it's close enough. After all, it's ice cream and you don't walk away empty handed.
Now think about the following scenario: You are in the mood for ice cream and walk into a Baskin Robbins. You say "I want ice cream" and the man behind the counter smiles and says: "Of course! What flavor do you want?" You respond: "Chocolate" and he asks you "Dark Chocolate, White Chocolate, Belgium Chocolate, Milk Chocolate or Truffle Chocolate?" Now you have choices and you will get exactly what you want.
When you are trading only one market, you have limited choices and you will be forced to compromise. After all, you don't want to walk away "empty handed," and you might take a trade that only partially fits your trading plan. You will constantly be forced to settle for a less than an ideal trade because you've limited your options by looking at only a fraction of the available markets. Trading only one market means that you implicitly accept the limitations of that market, allowing it to set your possibilities rather than looking around for the best opportunities available for profit.
Once seen in this light, it should be obvious why trading only one market is never an advantageous strategy. Trading multiple markets is like walking into a Baskin Robbins if you want ice cream. You have many choices and can pick the market that fits your own personal style and trading goals. You will only take the best trades, and, therefore, increase your chances of making money with day trading.
(Markus)
Tuesday, 23 February 2010
Monday, 22 February 2010
Monday 22/2
I'm trying to classified trading by its day. Starts by today.
Its better than enter the market blindly (for me lah).
I will check the accuracy of my prognosis at the the end of the day/week.
So I will save my screen time. :-)
Monday - slow market, no clear trend (till 10.23am NY time).
ZZzz..
*******
Post-session : my assumption is correct
Its better than enter the market blindly (for me lah).
I will check the accuracy of my prognosis at the the end of the day/week.
So I will save my screen time. :-)
Monday - slow market, no clear trend (till 10.23am NY time).
ZZzz..
*******
Post-session : my assumption is correct
Saturday, 20 February 2010
Focus on being profitable for the week
My mental set-up : checked
My trading set-up: checked
My trading goal: checked
It seems more practical if I'm focus on being profitable for the week
Accordingly, the weekly PnL in this blog will be up updated weekly. The official monthly PnL is as usual.
*************
Another Dr Brett's note:
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2006/12/three-pieces-of-trading-wisdom.html
Focus on being profitable for the week - Individual trades may go against you and individual trading days can offer little opportunity. As a senior trader once explained to me, for the active trader, however, there are enough fresh opportunities in a week to make it reasonable to set a goal of being profitable for the week. You won't reach your goal every single week, but the mere act of setting the goal keeps you focused. For example, you don't want to lose so much money in a single day that you can't make it back during the other days of the week. You also don't want to lose so much money on a single trade that you can't come back during the remainder of the day. When you really push yourself to be profitable every week, you don't let individual days get away from you. And when you don't let individual days get away from you, you start managing each trade carefully to ensure that your largest loss won't exceed your largest gain. Time and again I've seen a consistent sign of progress among developing traders: they stop digging themselves into holes.
My trading set-up: checked
My trading goal: checked
It seems more practical if I'm focus on being profitable for the week
Accordingly, the weekly PnL in this blog will be up updated weekly. The official monthly PnL is as usual.
*************
Another Dr Brett's note:
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2006/12/three-pieces-of-trading-wisdom.html
Focus on being profitable for the week - Individual trades may go against you and individual trading days can offer little opportunity. As a senior trader once explained to me, for the active trader, however, there are enough fresh opportunities in a week to make it reasonable to set a goal of being profitable for the week. You won't reach your goal every single week, but the mere act of setting the goal keeps you focused. For example, you don't want to lose so much money in a single day that you can't make it back during the other days of the week. You also don't want to lose so much money on a single trade that you can't come back during the remainder of the day. When you really push yourself to be profitable every week, you don't let individual days get away from you. And when you don't let individual days get away from you, you start managing each trade carefully to ensure that your largest loss won't exceed your largest gain. Time and again I've seen a consistent sign of progress among developing traders: they stop digging themselves into holes.
Wednesday, 17 February 2010
The Edge
After slogging countless hours in countless lonely nights and when I thought I have to give up....I think I found my edge last night.
In the picture, the edge a bit looked dangerous (Hmm...risky is a better word)
BTW, my broker sent me a note to say "HI - how are you doing ?".
I will SIM trade this 'edge' to know its limitation.My broker can wait.
2 Rules from Phantom of the Pits
Among the simple set of rules, but a powerful one. I have used these mental rules during FKLI days...I forgot this rules until CL reminding me to bring back this 2 rules from my trading library...
************
1. In a losing game such as trading, we shall start against the majority and assume we are wrong until
proven correct! (We do not assume we are correct until proven wrong.) Positions established must be reduced
and removed until or unless the market proves the position correct! (We allow the market to verify correct
positions, we don't allow market to verify wrong positions.)
2. Press your winners correctly without exception. Being right (Rule 1) does not, in
itself, make the most amount of profit.
In trading most of you have a greater chance of being wrong than right! Trade
accordingly . . . which means expect the limit (being wrong more likely) in your trading.
How can you come out ahead? In the short run, you can only with luck. But in the long run, luck tends to even back the other way. You must trade in the long run!
So what is a trader to do in a losing game? You must trade in the long run! How can you trade in the long run? Only way I know is that you must keep your losses small and take more small losses than small winners to come out ahead. This often means washing a position for the sake of being able to keep in the game.
The theorem now is to assume your position is wrong until the market proves what you positioned is correct. Keep your losses quick and small. Don't ever let the market tell you you're wrong. Always let the market tell you when your position is correct. It is your job to know you are wrong and not the market's job.
The other side of the coin is that you will get positions that are correct. You must be bigger at that time. This will require a Rule Number 2, which is designed around adding to winners in an unfavorable game to come out ahead in the long run. When you are correct, you must continue to use Rule 1 to keep losses small. It's okay to be wrong small but never okay to be wrong big if you expect to trade in the long run.
Trading is not easy. Most traders just let the market do its thing. The correct way is that you do your thing and control your positioning. You control your positions by using rules that keep you in the game.
Rule 1 is the most important rule in any trade plan. Rule 2 will be the other side of the coin, which must be dealt with if you are expecting to remain in the game in the long run.
(POP)
************
1. In a losing game such as trading, we shall start against the majority and assume we are wrong until
proven correct! (We do not assume we are correct until proven wrong.) Positions established must be reduced
and removed until or unless the market proves the position correct! (We allow the market to verify correct
positions, we don't allow market to verify wrong positions.)
2. Press your winners correctly without exception. Being right (Rule 1) does not, in
itself, make the most amount of profit.
In trading most of you have a greater chance of being wrong than right! Trade
accordingly . . . which means expect the limit (being wrong more likely) in your trading.
How can you come out ahead? In the short run, you can only with luck. But in the long run, luck tends to even back the other way. You must trade in the long run!
So what is a trader to do in a losing game? You must trade in the long run! How can you trade in the long run? Only way I know is that you must keep your losses small and take more small losses than small winners to come out ahead. This often means washing a position for the sake of being able to keep in the game.
The theorem now is to assume your position is wrong until the market proves what you positioned is correct. Keep your losses quick and small. Don't ever let the market tell you you're wrong. Always let the market tell you when your position is correct. It is your job to know you are wrong and not the market's job.
The other side of the coin is that you will get positions that are correct. You must be bigger at that time. This will require a Rule Number 2, which is designed around adding to winners in an unfavorable game to come out ahead in the long run. When you are correct, you must continue to use Rule 1 to keep losses small. It's okay to be wrong small but never okay to be wrong big if you expect to trade in the long run.
Trading is not easy. Most traders just let the market do its thing. The correct way is that you do your thing and control your positioning. You control your positions by using rules that keep you in the game.
Rule 1 is the most important rule in any trade plan. Rule 2 will be the other side of the coin, which must be dealt with if you are expecting to remain in the game in the long run.
(POP)
Tuesday, 9 February 2010
Stanley Kroll
I put a statement from Stanley Kroll below my blog title yesterday...as I thought that I have to use that strategy on the beast (CL). Its a different strategy than I used before in my previous contract TF...
At core, my strategy depended on the behaviour of the contract.
It also helps, as I dont waste my 'focus' energy in this 'kroll' way.
Another note, I shut down the PC at 12 mn malaysia. This morning I found that CL move at 12.15 am..
only 15 minutes away...
I will 'Kroll' ya !
At core, my strategy depended on the behaviour of the contract.
It also helps, as I dont waste my 'focus' energy in this 'kroll' way.
Another note, I shut down the PC at 12 mn malaysia. This morning I found that CL move at 12.15 am..
only 15 minutes away...
I will 'Kroll' ya !
Thursday, 4 February 2010
CL - sim trades
I have other commitments nowdays so I can't concentrate
So I will sim trades CL with FAKE 5000 USD.
I hope the fake result is good. ;-)
So I will sim trades CL with FAKE 5000 USD.
I hope the fake result is good. ;-)
Monday, 1 February 2010
Top Five Trading Mistakes
I'm in the midst to correct the #1 mistake in CL trades. I don't have the other 4 problems :-)
*****
www.letstalkfutures.com/2009/06/30/top-five-trading-mistakes/
by Ben Kim
Over the years I have seen some repeated mistakes new traders make, and most are relatively easy to avoid if you are disciplined. Before I get into my list of the top five trading mistakes, I’ll mention one more that applies to trading as we move closer to the 4th of July holiday and the summer doldrums. In holiday markets, volume tends to be quiet at times, and that means markets can whipsaw, especially overnight. One large order can move a market significantly. We often see a lot of “noise” going on as we head into a holiday that might not be a true reflection of market fundamentals. It’s a time that’s harder to trade, and might not be the best time to initiate new positions if you aren’t an experienced trader. But if you do want to trade, avoiding the pitfalls is even more important.
1. Trying to Pick Market Tops and Bottoms
This is a very common mistake with rookie traders or investors. People think they can perfectly time the market. Ask yourself: can the market go any higher or lower? Of course it can. Crude oil is a perfect example. Last year the price of crude oil rose to above $147 a barrel, then in just six months, fell to under $35. People were trying to pinpoint the top from about $90, and many got run over. Trying to pick tops and bottoms in any market is a losing cause; the odds are against you. There are only two points on a chart that have an absolute top and bottom. There is more profit potential in the meat in between the trend, once you identify it.
To identify a trend, I look at chart patterns. The entry and exit are the harder parts to identify. I use moving averages, MACD, and the Relative Strength Index to help me determine whether a market is overbought or oversold. Study different technical indicators. Find ones that you are comfortable with and that work for you.
If a market is trending, I’d want to buy on pullbacks. Watch for profit-taking in the markets within the trend, and see if your indicators show it might be a good time to get in. If I see a big economic report coming up, I might avoid that trade until the dust settles. Then I’ll look at specific support points on my charts to help me determine exit points.
2. Overtrading
You don’t want to let your emotions dictate your trade. That’s part of the reason people overtrade. People tend to over-react to market movements, and it affects their psyche. Trading futures is a very mental game. You need to keep your emotions in check. Trade based on what you know, and what you see. Overtrading tends to be mainly a problem for day traders.
To avoid overtrading, have a plan and stick to it. Trade the chart, not the money. You don’t want to become overconfident. Once you get overconfident, you start trading more, and it’s not the right way to approach the markets. On the flip side, many traders who are on a losing streak try to make the money back and overtrade, adding to their position. They are not trading with the right mindset and a small loss becomes a big one.
If you see yourself doing these things, step away from the screen, take some time off and reassess. The trades will come. Be patient. If the setup is not there, there is no reason to trade. Get out of losing trades before they become big problems; don’t try to dollar-cost average when trading futures.
3. Over-Leverage
The basic definition of leverage is the use of various instruments to increase one’s rate of return. In futures, that means you can put up a small amount of capital to control a much larger contract value. In regards to business, leverage refers to using heavy financing for various activities. While leverage is an appealing characteristic of futures markets, leverage is a double-edged sword in futures trading. It can be great, because you are using a small amount of money to control a large investment, but on the flip side, you can lose a whole lot more too.
Being able to define and control your leverage is key to longevity as a trader. If you have a small account, you need to know what markets are reasonable for you to trade. Know your risk tolerance, and know your limits.
4. Improper Money Management
Sound money management can be the difference between success or failure, even if not all your trades are winners. Make sure your account size fits the particular markets you want to trade. You have to be able to assess your risk tolerance. Always have an exit strategy on every trade before you get into the trade. Use protective stop orders, which can take some of the emotion out of trading. It’s not how you get into the market, it’s how you get out that can make the difference in your success. Even the best traders aren’t always right. A professional trader knows when to get out of a losing trade quickly and lets the winners ride.
Be able to take losses. You aren’t always going to be right on every trade. That’s just reality. The reason you want to cut your losses early is that a few big winning trades can offset many losers, but one really bad trade can wipe you out completely. It’s not fun to get stopped out of a trade, but you’ll be glad you got out when the market keeps moving against you. You’ll be able to trade the next opportunity when it comes along. Live to fight another day.
5. No Trading Plan
Many people have a “get-rich quick” mentality when it comes to futures trading. That’s the absolute worst mentality to have. You need a plan. If you don’t have a trading plan, you are going into a gunfight with a blindfold on. If you have a trading plan, you will have a strategy for entering and exiting positions, and you’ll know your risk tolerance on each trade. I also recommend keeping a trading journal. You can’t improve as a trader unless you know what didn’t work in the past. You can look back and determine what you should correct going forward.
These are just a few of my thoughts on trading. Feel free to contact me with any questions that you have about the markets.
Ben Kim is a Senior Market Strategist with Lind Plus, Lind-Waldock’s broker-assisted division.
Wednesday, 27 January 2010
Lessons of Losses
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2006/08/why-its-so-easy-to-lose-money-in.html
1) Trading affects psychology as much as psychology affects trading – This was really the motivating factor behind my writing the new book. Many traders experience stress and frustration because they are trading poorly and lack a true edge in the marketplace. Working on your emotions will be of limited help if you are putting your money at risk and don’t truly have an edge.
2) Emotional disruption is present even among the most successful traders – A trading method that produces 60% winners will experience four consecutive losses 2-3% of the time and as much time in flat performance as in an uptrending P/L curve. Strings of events (including losers) occur more often by chance than traders are prepared for.
3) Winning disrupts the trader’s emotions as much as losing – We are disrupted when we experience events outside our expectation. The method that is 60% accurate will experience four consecutive winners about 13% of the time. Traders are just as susceptible to overconfidence during profitable runs as underconfidence during strings of losers.
4) Size kills – The surest path toward emotional damage is to trade size that is too large for one’s portfolio. We experience P/L in relation to our portfolio value. When we trade too large, we create exaggerated swings of winning and losing, which in turn create exaggerated emotional swings.
5) Training is the path to expertise – Think of every performance field out there—sports, music, chess, acting—and you will find that practice builds skills. Trading, in some ways, is harder than other performance fields because there are no college teams or minor leagues for development. From day one, we’re up against the pros. Without training and practice, we will lack the skills to survive such competition.
6) Successful traders possess rich mental maps - All successful trading boils down to pattern recognition and the development of mental maps that help us translate our perceptions of patterns into concrete trading behaviors. Without such mental maps, traders become lost in complexity.
7) Markets change – Patterns of volatility and trending are always shifting, and they change across multiple time frames. Because of this, no single trading method will be successful across the board for a given market. The successful trader not only masters markets, but masters the changes in those markets.
8) Even the best traders have periods of drawdown – As markets change, the best traders go through a process of relearning. The ones who succeed are the ones who save their money during the good times so that they can financially survive the lean periods.
9) The market you’re in counts as much toward performance as your trading method – Some markets are more volatile and trendy than others; some have more distinct patterns than others. Finding the right fit between trader, trading method, and market is key.
10) Execution and trade management count – A surprising degree of long-term trading success comes from getting good prices on entry and exit. The single best predictor of trading failure is when the average P/L of losing trades exceeds the average P/L of winners.
Well, let's look at a few reasons:
1) The stocks and indices most familiar to traders have provided the worst returns.
2) The time frame most comfortable for short-term traders (daytrading) has provided the worst returns.
3) The growth of stock index and ETFs has created automated arbitrage strategies that have greatly diminished market trending.
4) Markets tend to confound human nature by refusing to do in the next time period what they have done in the previous one.
5) Because of the above, following normal human sentiment makes people lose money in the markets, almost as if the game is rigged.
6) Because markets change their trending and volatility over time, we'll always tend to be most confident just as things are turning--and overconfidence is deadly.
7) There's no minor league for trading: once you place your order, you're up against the pros, who have a lot of tools at their disposal.
I've learned many things from traders, but this perhaps is most important: The most successful traders and trading organizations I've had the pleasure of getting to know are constantly adapting to changing market conditions. They don't rely on a single trading model; they are always modeling. They do not scalp the midday hours the same as they approach the early morning. They know the difference between a market with active institutional participation and one dominated by locals--and trade accordingly.
People are comfortable with the known, and that keeps them static. It is so easy to lose money in the markets, because markets are dynamic.
(Dr Brett)
1) Trading affects psychology as much as psychology affects trading – This was really the motivating factor behind my writing the new book. Many traders experience stress and frustration because they are trading poorly and lack a true edge in the marketplace. Working on your emotions will be of limited help if you are putting your money at risk and don’t truly have an edge.
2) Emotional disruption is present even among the most successful traders – A trading method that produces 60% winners will experience four consecutive losses 2-3% of the time and as much time in flat performance as in an uptrending P/L curve. Strings of events (including losers) occur more often by chance than traders are prepared for.
3) Winning disrupts the trader’s emotions as much as losing – We are disrupted when we experience events outside our expectation. The method that is 60% accurate will experience four consecutive winners about 13% of the time. Traders are just as susceptible to overconfidence during profitable runs as underconfidence during strings of losers.
4) Size kills – The surest path toward emotional damage is to trade size that is too large for one’s portfolio. We experience P/L in relation to our portfolio value. When we trade too large, we create exaggerated swings of winning and losing, which in turn create exaggerated emotional swings.
5) Training is the path to expertise – Think of every performance field out there—sports, music, chess, acting—and you will find that practice builds skills. Trading, in some ways, is harder than other performance fields because there are no college teams or minor leagues for development. From day one, we’re up against the pros. Without training and practice, we will lack the skills to survive such competition.
6) Successful traders possess rich mental maps - All successful trading boils down to pattern recognition and the development of mental maps that help us translate our perceptions of patterns into concrete trading behaviors. Without such mental maps, traders become lost in complexity.
7) Markets change – Patterns of volatility and trending are always shifting, and they change across multiple time frames. Because of this, no single trading method will be successful across the board for a given market. The successful trader not only masters markets, but masters the changes in those markets.
8) Even the best traders have periods of drawdown – As markets change, the best traders go through a process of relearning. The ones who succeed are the ones who save their money during the good times so that they can financially survive the lean periods.
9) The market you’re in counts as much toward performance as your trading method – Some markets are more volatile and trendy than others; some have more distinct patterns than others. Finding the right fit between trader, trading method, and market is key.
10) Execution and trade management count – A surprising degree of long-term trading success comes from getting good prices on entry and exit. The single best predictor of trading failure is when the average P/L of losing trades exceeds the average P/L of winners.
Thursday, August 17, 2006
Why It's So Easy to Lose Money in the Markets
A reader recently emailed me a deceptively simple question: "Why is it so much easier to lose money in the markets than to make money?"Well, let's look at a few reasons:
1) The stocks and indices most familiar to traders have provided the worst returns.
2) The time frame most comfortable for short-term traders (daytrading) has provided the worst returns.
3) The growth of stock index and ETFs has created automated arbitrage strategies that have greatly diminished market trending.
4) Markets tend to confound human nature by refusing to do in the next time period what they have done in the previous one.
5) Because of the above, following normal human sentiment makes people lose money in the markets, almost as if the game is rigged.
6) Because markets change their trending and volatility over time, we'll always tend to be most confident just as things are turning--and overconfidence is deadly.
7) There's no minor league for trading: once you place your order, you're up against the pros, who have a lot of tools at their disposal.
I've learned many things from traders, but this perhaps is most important: The most successful traders and trading organizations I've had the pleasure of getting to know are constantly adapting to changing market conditions. They don't rely on a single trading model; they are always modeling. They do not scalp the midday hours the same as they approach the early morning. They know the difference between a market with active institutional participation and one dominated by locals--and trade accordingly.
People are comfortable with the known, and that keeps them static. It is so easy to lose money in the markets, because markets are dynamic.
(Dr Brett)
Monday, 25 January 2010
Fear of unsure thing
I pull my trigger, then i realized 2 seconds later that is will be a loser becoz it is not my setup. Why I'm not following my plan?.. Well, i'm am tired of waiting for a beautiful chart. Next time when I felt like this I will just shutdown the computer. I remember the feeling. Tired.
I cant force an ugly duck to become a swan
The market give me about 2 minutes to react but I'm not quickly out. Strangely my mind is calm when the loss is a sure stoploss 100.But before this,my mind quickly stop it out when my potential profit will be about 300.
Why I'm so quick to get out when I'm profitable but so slow to get out when I'm in trouble ?
Maybe becoz I want a sure thing. The loss is sure only 100, but the potential profit is unknown.
To technically amend my mental flaw, I will reduce my stoploss further to 50 only.
If I'm stopped out, I have the advantage of the second chance to risk another 50.
If I win, well, its another win for unknown profit. Up to 1000 if the swing is big..
Scary is it ?
I cant force an ugly duck to become a swan
The market give me about 2 minutes to react but I'm not quickly out. Strangely my mind is calm when the loss is a sure stoploss 100.But before this,my mind quickly stop it out when my potential profit will be about 300.
Why I'm so quick to get out when I'm profitable but so slow to get out when I'm in trouble ?
Maybe becoz I want a sure thing. The loss is sure only 100, but the potential profit is unknown.
To technically amend my mental flaw, I will reduce my stoploss further to 50 only.
If I'm stopped out, I have the advantage of the second chance to risk another 50.
If I win, well, its another win for unknown profit. Up to 1000 if the swing is big..
Scary is it ?
Friday, 22 January 2010
A small step at a time
11.30am NY time. Has been faraway from the screen. The market has already move and now choppy. Low risk entry has been lost.
11.54 am NY time . S 75.17, B 75.15...scared as hell.
Positive about USD 12, below the weekly target
...I forego the long candle. Dont care about the money. What I care right now is to be right.
Hell No.
I do care about money.
A small step at a time.
Positive about USD 12, below the weekly target
...I forego the long candle. Dont care about the money. What I care right now is to be right.
Hell No.
I do care about money.
A small step at a time.
Thursday, 21 January 2010
Hopelessly devoted to CL
Oil report, wanna trade but better hold for tomorrow.
Edit : Good movement 10 minutes after the release of report. Beautiful chart.
Edit : Good movement 10 minutes after the release of report. Beautiful chart.
Tuesday, 19 January 2010
You can only connect the dots looking backwards
All my past experience in trading has some effects of my current trading style. I learned from the past, but I live in the present - TST
*****
'You've got to find what you love,' Jobs says
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2005/june15/jobs-061505.html
This is the text of the Commencement address by Steve Jobs, CEO of Apple Computer and of Pixar Animation Studios, delivered on June 12, 2005.
I am honored to be with you today at your commencement from one of the finest universities in the world. I never graduated from college. Truth be told, this is the closest I've ever gotten to a college graduation. Today I want to tell you three stories from my life. That's it. No big deal. Just three stories.
The first story is about connecting the dots.
I dropped out of Reed College after the first 6 months, but then stayed around as a drop-in for another 18 months or so before I really quit. So why did I drop out?
It started before I was born. My biological mother was a young, unwed college graduate student, and she decided to put me up for adoption. She felt very strongly that I should be adopted by college graduates, so everything was all set for me to be adopted at birth by a lawyer and his wife. Except that when I popped out they decided at the last minute that they really wanted a girl. So my parents, who were on a waiting list, got a call in the middle of the night asking: "We have an unexpected baby boy; do you want him?" They said: "Of course." My biological mother later found out that my mother had never graduated from college and that my father had never graduated from high school. She refused to sign the final adoption papers. She only relented a few months later when my parents promised that I would someday go to college.
And 17 years later I did go to college. But I naively chose a college that was almost as expensive as Stanford, and all of my working-class parents' savings were being spent on my college tuition. After six months, I couldn't see the value in it. I had no idea what I wanted to do with my life and no idea how college was going to help me figure it out. And here I was spending all of the money my parents had saved their entire life. So I decided to drop out and trust that it would all work out OK. It was pretty scary at the time, but looking back it was one of the best decisions I ever made. The minute I dropped out I could stop taking the required classes that didn't interest me, and begin dropping in on the ones that looked interesting.
It wasn't all romantic. I didn't have a dorm room, so I slept on the floor in friends' rooms, I returned coke bottles for the 5¢ deposits to buy food with, and I would walk the 7 miles across town every Sunday night to get one good meal a week at the Hare Krishna temple. I loved it. And much of what I stumbled into by following my curiosity and intuition turned out to be priceless later on. Let me give you one example:
Reed College at that time offered perhaps the best calligraphy instruction in the country. Throughout the campus every poster, every label on every drawer, was beautifully hand calligraphed. Because I had dropped out and didn't have to take the normal classes, I decided to take a calligraphy class to learn how to do this. I learned about serif and san serif typefaces, about varying the amount of space between different letter combinations, about what makes great typography great. It was beautiful, historical, artistically subtle in a way that science can't capture, and I found it fascinating.
None of this had even a hope of any practical application in my life. But ten years later, when we were designing the first Macintosh computer, it all came back to me. And we designed it all into the Mac. It was the first computer with beautiful typography. If I had never dropped in on that single course in college, the Mac would have never had multiple typefaces or proportionally spaced fonts. And since Windows just copied the Mac, its likely that no personal computer would have them. If I had never dropped out, I would have never dropped in on this calligraphy class, and personal computers might not have the wonderful typography that they do. Of course it was impossible to connect the dots looking forward when I was in college. But it was very, very clear looking backwards ten years later.
Again, you can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.
My second story is about love and loss.
I was lucky — I found what I loved to do early in life. Woz and I started Apple in my parents garage when I was 20. We worked hard, and in 10 years Apple had grown from just the two of us in a garage into a $2 billion company with over 4000 employees. We had just released our finest creation — the Macintosh — a year earlier, and I had just turned 30. And then I got fired. How can you get fired from a company you started? Well, as Apple grew we hired someone who I thought was very talented to run the company with me, and for the first year or so things went well. But then our visions of the future began to diverge and eventually we had a falling out. When we did, our Board of Directors sided with him. So at 30 I was out. And very publicly out. What had been the focus of my entire adult life was gone, and it was devastating.
I really didn't know what to do for a few months. I felt that I had let the previous generation of entrepreneurs down - that I had dropped the baton as it was being passed to me. I met with David Packard and Bob Noyce and tried to apologize for screwing up so badly. I was a very public failure, and I even thought about running away from the valley. But something slowly began to dawn on me — I still loved what I did. The turn of events at Apple had not changed that one bit. I had been rejected, but I was still in love. And so I decided to start over.
I didn't see it then, but it turned out that getting fired from Apple was the best thing that could have ever happened to me. The heaviness of being successful was replaced by the lightness of being a beginner again, less sure about everything. It freed me to enter one of the most creative periods of my life.
During the next five years, I started a company named NeXT, another company named Pixar, and fell in love with an amazing woman who would become my wife. Pixar went on to create the worlds first computer animated feature film, Toy Story, and is now the most successful animation studio in the world. In a remarkable turn of events, Apple bought NeXT, I returned to Apple, and the technology we developed at NeXT is at the heart of Apple's current renaissance. And Laurene and I have a wonderful family together.
I'm pretty sure none of this would have happened if I hadn't been fired from Apple. It was awful tasting medicine, but I guess the patient needed it. Sometimes life hits you in the head with a brick. Don't lose faith. I'm convinced that the only thing that kept me going was that I loved what I did. You've got to find what you love. And that is as true for your work as it is for your lovers. Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking until you find it. Don't settle.
My third story is about death.
When I was 17, I read a quote that went something like: "If you live each day as if it was your last, someday you'll most certainly be right." It made an impression on me, and since then, for the past 33 years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?" And whenever the answer has been "No" for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something.
Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything — all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure - these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.
About a year ago I was diagnosed with cancer. I had a scan at 7:30 in the morning, and it clearly showed a tumor on my pancreas. I didn't even know what a pancreas was. The doctors told me this was almost certainly a type of cancer that is incurable, and that I should expect to live no longer than three to six months. My doctor advised me to go home and get my affairs in order, which is doctor's code for prepare to die. It means to try to tell your kids everything you thought you'd have the next 10 years to tell them in just a few months. It means to make sure everything is buttoned up so that it will be as easy as possible for your family. It means to say your goodbyes.
I lived with that diagnosis all day. Later that evening I had a biopsy, where they stuck an endoscope down my throat, through my stomach and into my intestines, put a needle into my pancreas and got a few cells from the tumor. I was sedated, but my wife, who was there, told me that when they viewed the cells under a microscope the doctors started crying because it turned out to be a very rare form of pancreatic cancer that is curable with surgery. I had the surgery and I'm fine now.
This was the closest I've been to facing death, and I hope its the closest I get for a few more decades. Having lived through it, I can now say this to you with a bit more certainty than when death was a useful but purely intellectual concept:
No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there. And yet death is the destination we all share. No one has ever escaped it. And that is as it should be, because Death is very likely the single best invention of Life. It is Life's change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new. Right now the new is you, but someday not too long from now, you will gradually become the old and be cleared away. Sorry to be so dramatic, but it is quite true.
Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma — which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary.
When I was young, there was an amazing publication called The Whole Earth Catalog, which was one of the bibles of my generation. It was created by a fellow named Stewart Brand not far from here in Menlo Park, and he brought it to life with his poetic touch. This was in the late 1960's, before personal computers and desktop publishing, so it was all made with typewriters, scissors, and polaroid cameras. It was sort of like Google in paperback form, 35 years before Google came along: it was idealistic, and overflowing with neat tools and great notions.
Stewart and his team put out several issues of The Whole Earth Catalog, and then when it had run its course, they put out a final issue. It was the mid-1970s, and I was your age. On the back cover of their final issue was a photograph of an early morning country road, the kind you might find yourself hitchhiking on if you were so adventurous. Beneath it were the words: "Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish." It was their farewell message as they signed off. Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. And I have always wished that for myself. And now, as you graduate to begin anew, I wish that for you.
Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.
Thank you all very much.
I am honored to be with you today at your commencement from one of the finest universities in the world. I never graduated from college. Truth be told, this is the closest I've ever gotten to a college graduation. Today I want to tell you three stories from my life. That's it. No big deal. Just three stories.
The first story is about connecting the dots.
I dropped out of Reed College after the first 6 months, but then stayed around as a drop-in for another 18 months or so before I really quit. So why did I drop out?
It started before I was born. My biological mother was a young, unwed college graduate student, and she decided to put me up for adoption. She felt very strongly that I should be adopted by college graduates, so everything was all set for me to be adopted at birth by a lawyer and his wife. Except that when I popped out they decided at the last minute that they really wanted a girl. So my parents, who were on a waiting list, got a call in the middle of the night asking: "We have an unexpected baby boy; do you want him?" They said: "Of course." My biological mother later found out that my mother had never graduated from college and that my father had never graduated from high school. She refused to sign the final adoption papers. She only relented a few months later when my parents promised that I would someday go to college.
And 17 years later I did go to college. But I naively chose a college that was almost as expensive as Stanford, and all of my working-class parents' savings were being spent on my college tuition. After six months, I couldn't see the value in it. I had no idea what I wanted to do with my life and no idea how college was going to help me figure it out. And here I was spending all of the money my parents had saved their entire life. So I decided to drop out and trust that it would all work out OK. It was pretty scary at the time, but looking back it was one of the best decisions I ever made. The minute I dropped out I could stop taking the required classes that didn't interest me, and begin dropping in on the ones that looked interesting.
It wasn't all romantic. I didn't have a dorm room, so I slept on the floor in friends' rooms, I returned coke bottles for the 5¢ deposits to buy food with, and I would walk the 7 miles across town every Sunday night to get one good meal a week at the Hare Krishna temple. I loved it. And much of what I stumbled into by following my curiosity and intuition turned out to be priceless later on. Let me give you one example:
Reed College at that time offered perhaps the best calligraphy instruction in the country. Throughout the campus every poster, every label on every drawer, was beautifully hand calligraphed. Because I had dropped out and didn't have to take the normal classes, I decided to take a calligraphy class to learn how to do this. I learned about serif and san serif typefaces, about varying the amount of space between different letter combinations, about what makes great typography great. It was beautiful, historical, artistically subtle in a way that science can't capture, and I found it fascinating.
None of this had even a hope of any practical application in my life. But ten years later, when we were designing the first Macintosh computer, it all came back to me. And we designed it all into the Mac. It was the first computer with beautiful typography. If I had never dropped in on that single course in college, the Mac would have never had multiple typefaces or proportionally spaced fonts. And since Windows just copied the Mac, its likely that no personal computer would have them. If I had never dropped out, I would have never dropped in on this calligraphy class, and personal computers might not have the wonderful typography that they do. Of course it was impossible to connect the dots looking forward when I was in college. But it was very, very clear looking backwards ten years later.
Again, you can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.
My second story is about love and loss.
I was lucky — I found what I loved to do early in life. Woz and I started Apple in my parents garage when I was 20. We worked hard, and in 10 years Apple had grown from just the two of us in a garage into a $2 billion company with over 4000 employees. We had just released our finest creation — the Macintosh — a year earlier, and I had just turned 30. And then I got fired. How can you get fired from a company you started? Well, as Apple grew we hired someone who I thought was very talented to run the company with me, and for the first year or so things went well. But then our visions of the future began to diverge and eventually we had a falling out. When we did, our Board of Directors sided with him. So at 30 I was out. And very publicly out. What had been the focus of my entire adult life was gone, and it was devastating.
I really didn't know what to do for a few months. I felt that I had let the previous generation of entrepreneurs down - that I had dropped the baton as it was being passed to me. I met with David Packard and Bob Noyce and tried to apologize for screwing up so badly. I was a very public failure, and I even thought about running away from the valley. But something slowly began to dawn on me — I still loved what I did. The turn of events at Apple had not changed that one bit. I had been rejected, but I was still in love. And so I decided to start over.
I didn't see it then, but it turned out that getting fired from Apple was the best thing that could have ever happened to me. The heaviness of being successful was replaced by the lightness of being a beginner again, less sure about everything. It freed me to enter one of the most creative periods of my life.
During the next five years, I started a company named NeXT, another company named Pixar, and fell in love with an amazing woman who would become my wife. Pixar went on to create the worlds first computer animated feature film, Toy Story, and is now the most successful animation studio in the world. In a remarkable turn of events, Apple bought NeXT, I returned to Apple, and the technology we developed at NeXT is at the heart of Apple's current renaissance. And Laurene and I have a wonderful family together.
I'm pretty sure none of this would have happened if I hadn't been fired from Apple. It was awful tasting medicine, but I guess the patient needed it. Sometimes life hits you in the head with a brick. Don't lose faith. I'm convinced that the only thing that kept me going was that I loved what I did. You've got to find what you love. And that is as true for your work as it is for your lovers. Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking until you find it. Don't settle.
My third story is about death.
When I was 17, I read a quote that went something like: "If you live each day as if it was your last, someday you'll most certainly be right." It made an impression on me, and since then, for the past 33 years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?" And whenever the answer has been "No" for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something.
Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything — all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure - these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.
About a year ago I was diagnosed with cancer. I had a scan at 7:30 in the morning, and it clearly showed a tumor on my pancreas. I didn't even know what a pancreas was. The doctors told me this was almost certainly a type of cancer that is incurable, and that I should expect to live no longer than three to six months. My doctor advised me to go home and get my affairs in order, which is doctor's code for prepare to die. It means to try to tell your kids everything you thought you'd have the next 10 years to tell them in just a few months. It means to make sure everything is buttoned up so that it will be as easy as possible for your family. It means to say your goodbyes.
I lived with that diagnosis all day. Later that evening I had a biopsy, where they stuck an endoscope down my throat, through my stomach and into my intestines, put a needle into my pancreas and got a few cells from the tumor. I was sedated, but my wife, who was there, told me that when they viewed the cells under a microscope the doctors started crying because it turned out to be a very rare form of pancreatic cancer that is curable with surgery. I had the surgery and I'm fine now.
This was the closest I've been to facing death, and I hope its the closest I get for a few more decades. Having lived through it, I can now say this to you with a bit more certainty than when death was a useful but purely intellectual concept:
No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there. And yet death is the destination we all share. No one has ever escaped it. And that is as it should be, because Death is very likely the single best invention of Life. It is Life's change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new. Right now the new is you, but someday not too long from now, you will gradually become the old and be cleared away. Sorry to be so dramatic, but it is quite true.
Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma — which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary.
When I was young, there was an amazing publication called The Whole Earth Catalog, which was one of the bibles of my generation. It was created by a fellow named Stewart Brand not far from here in Menlo Park, and he brought it to life with his poetic touch. This was in the late 1960's, before personal computers and desktop publishing, so it was all made with typewriters, scissors, and polaroid cameras. It was sort of like Google in paperback form, 35 years before Google came along: it was idealistic, and overflowing with neat tools and great notions.
Stewart and his team put out several issues of The Whole Earth Catalog, and then when it had run its course, they put out a final issue. It was the mid-1970s, and I was your age. On the back cover of their final issue was a photograph of an early morning country road, the kind you might find yourself hitchhiking on if you were so adventurous. Beneath it were the words: "Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish." It was their farewell message as they signed off. Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. And I have always wished that for myself. And now, as you graduate to begin anew, I wish that for you.
Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.
Thank you all very much.
Monday, 18 January 2010
Goal Setting
I never set my goal in a written form before this, but i will do it this time
I already SIM tested my trade in 2 sessions: Has achieved 70% rate
Since I have a negative net flow this month, I will set a short term target for me to achieve.
I want a net positive USD 100 in my CL trading this week.
Yes, only USD 100/week.
;-)
Further info:
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/03/importance-of-daily-trading-goals.html
Looked like I will miss trading 19 Jan, have to attend old school's meeting
I already SIM tested my trade in 2 sessions: Has achieved 70% rate
Since I have a negative net flow this month, I will set a short term target for me to achieve.
I want a net positive USD 100 in my CL trading this week.
Yes, only USD 100/week.
;-)
Further info:
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/03/importance-of-daily-trading-goals.html
Looked like I will miss trading 19 Jan, have to attend old school's meeting
Tuesday, 5 January 2010
I'm an Artistic Trader :-)
Based on Tharp's Test:
Artistic Trader:
You are open-minded, adaptable and flexible; if you can figure out how to apply that to trading, it will improve your chances of success. You are committed to your own values. You'll work toward realizing your value-oriented goals and rebel against anything that is in conflict with those goals.
One of Your Trading Strengths - You can be very effective in detecting the patterns and early signs of market changes.
One of Your Trading Challenges - Because you need tangible and concrete evidence, the markets may not be able to give you the answers you want.
P.S : No wonder I'm not getting into the market yet !
One of Your Trading Strengths - You can be very effective in detecting the patterns and early signs of market changes.
One of Your Trading Challenges - Because you need tangible and concrete evidence, the markets may not be able to give you the answers you want.
P.S : No wonder I'm not getting into the market yet !
Thursday, 31 December 2009
A New Year and A New Hope
For 2010, I will trade CL , will have a look at ZS and glance over TF. I've SIM CL and the result is better than TF ( at least for now).
CL is also better than QM. CL has smoother movement - smooth operator - lubrication oil.....HAHA !
Tuesday, 15 December 2009
I believe in numbers
OK I have changed my mind... CL is a bigger beast than TF eventhough the margin req is smaller...
I'm new to CL so I need statistic of my CL trading.
I will get this from SIM without losing my arms......
I will SIM CL 20 times,only then I will know the stats..and once I know my CL stats (like I know TF only move 7 times permonth), I will take a real CL trading...
I already knew that Wednesday morning is a danger-zone for CL trading as this is the time a major weekly report released.
I'm new to CL so I need statistic of my CL trading.
I will get this from SIM without losing my arms......
I will SIM CL 20 times,only then I will know the stats..and once I know my CL stats (like I know TF only move 7 times permonth), I will take a real CL trading...
I already knew that Wednesday morning is a danger-zone for CL trading as this is the time a major weekly report released.
Monday, 14 December 2009
Another Orang Minyak
Before this I focus solely to TF chart.
My experience grew but TF move is stagnated.
With TF I know exactly when NOT to trade, so mostly I'm at sideline. When I'm bored I just jump in to the 'red sea'..
So I need something more active to trade, I need to find my match at my current level. "the chemistry" they said...
I heard many bad news from CL, the scary stories...
So I ask my broker the margin requirement of CL....
The asnwer came back : Its lower than TF !
Oh my !
Now I will add CL to my screen.
Yes TF too, at the left side, farrrr.... from my red-button.
Will SIM CL at the moment.. 2 days SIM and then real trades.
(Only real trades teach me something, the SIM just to optimize my indicators of choice for CL)
My experience grew but TF move is stagnated.
With TF I know exactly when NOT to trade, so mostly I'm at sideline. When I'm bored I just jump in to the 'red sea'..
So I need something more active to trade, I need to find my match at my current level. "the chemistry" they said...
I heard many bad news from CL, the scary stories...
So I ask my broker the margin requirement of CL....
The asnwer came back : Its lower than TF !
Oh my !
Now I will add CL to my screen.
Yes TF too, at the left side, farrrr.... from my red-button.
Will SIM CL at the moment.. 2 days SIM and then real trades.
(Only real trades teach me something, the SIM just to optimize my indicators of choice for CL)
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