Choppy again

Choppy then late trending

Bad trade? Blame the adrenal cortex

I tried some supplements to help. Standard diet is not helping a wannabe trader

*****

Rogue hormones

Sep 24th 2011

IF THE losses at UBS that surfaced this month were caused by a “rogue” trader, would that make his colleagues stable? Not if research being undertaken by John Coates, a neuroscientist at Cambridge University and a former derivatives trader, is anything to go by. His work suggests that hormones drive investment decisions to a far greater extent than economists or bank executives realise. When traders are on a winning streak, their testosterone levels surge, sparking such euphoria that they underestimate risk. When they are acutely stressed, the adrenal cortex produces a flood of cortisol, a hormone that can make them overly fearful and risk-averse.

Mr Coates says he was drawn to study these biochemical processes because he wanted to understand the “unbelievably powerful emotions” that make traders “go crazy”. In past experiments conducted on a London trading floor, Mr Coates saw cortisol levels in traders’ saliva jump by as much as 500% in a day. Remarkably, cortisol increased in direct correlation to implied volatility, a measure of expected future variance in asset prices. “The uncertainty is almost worse than the shock itself,” says Mr Coates. “It’s always a lot worse not knowing where the goddamn monster is.”

Cortisol prepares humans for danger, partly by helping the brain retrieve important memories. This early-warning system is invaluable in the wild. But raging hormones can eventually wreck investors’ ability to think rationally. Chronic stress over weeks or months can produce so much cortisol that the brain focuses excessively on negative memories and perceives threats where they do not exist. This loss of judgment is exacerbated by other symptoms of stress, such as sleep deprivation.

Mr Coates likens this condition to the state of “learned helplessness” identified in the 1960s by Martin Seligman, a psychologist who delivered random electric shocks to dogs constrained in harnesses. Eventually the animals lost the will to escape, even once they could do so.

Traders and rodents also seem to have something in common. Place a rat in an open field and its fear is obvious. Although visible symptoms of anxiety gradually disappear its cortisol levels remain elevated, showing that it is more stressed than it looks. Mr Coates has seen a similar phenomenon among traders. In questionnaires they displayed no awareness of the rampant stress indicated by their cortisol measurements.

One way to reduce the financial havoc these hormones might wreak could be for trading desks to hire more women. Women have about 10% as much testosterone as men, making them less prone to irrational exuberance. Competitive situations do not activate women’s cortisol response with such intensity, so market mayhem is less likely to impair their judgment. Call it a hormonal-diversification strategy

Set Fire to the 'Oil

Exp set Up

Potential Set up

Market moved early, so I learned an experimental setup + other 2 charts

enough theory - lesson, sometimes CL is unpredictable..market moves maybe due to news ?
PS: Yes, Gas Report at 10.30 !

and the final chart before going to sleep 23.27pm Malaysia

Good Trend Day ,,,but...

I confused with ema white position - had to relied on DB and DT and 2 emas only  in future. ema white to be deleted

Wed/Thu should be a good trend day even though has EIA rep

Market building a trend, but still wimpy today.

p.s missed that horiz SR line near that unperfect setup. Aided by hor SR, this should be solid setup after green candle closed.

New CLN2 - Choppy

Reaarranged chart MTF

now I have daily,30m, 15m,5m,3m, 2m, 1m CL naked charts with 3emas and drawn lines.
as I intend to chase 1 good trend instead scalping, I forego the tick chart variant.
stretched 1 chart across 2 monitors to have that vista look :) and can be reverted to 1 screen chart if needed by 1 clik.
No second chart to distract me at any 1 time.

I dont have many bullets left, so current mental and physical preparation are ideal

Friday session is time off, c u next Monday.

Roger and out

Chart time frames are more important than trading set up

Revised TradingRichF = Positive Visualisation*  (Mindset)+ compression/expansion +HiHiLoLo/SR/ema + LongTail/Doji/Inside bar + Chart Time/Tick/Volume Frame + Auto Stop -Loss (Physical)

The reason is this,  in yesterday's session my best setup exactly shown in 2min, but nowhere in my current  1min, 200t, 5 min...DUH

An analogy to a sniper :

Setup is the target position and its behaviour
Lot is the bullet, account is the magazine
DOM is the long range rifle.
Chart Time frame is the magnifying telescope.

Imagined if the sniper' s rifle has NO suitable telescope > then  he is NOT a sniper anymore

So yesterday lesson : Chart time frames are more important than trading set up...

2 respected traders mentioned that yesterday CL was tough to trade but for me it was easy peanut IF I applied the right time frame...the right telescope magnifying power.

Another lesson : Trading is very induvidual thing, but this lesson is well-known

* Positive Visualiasation is good for me as I'm not so jumpy during last 2 sessions as I strive for my best setup only. Before this, I wonder why I took some lousy setups...so its shows the benefit of PV 

The TradingRich formula is not E=mc2

But this is :

TradingRichF = compression/expansion +HiHiLoLo/SR/ema + LongTail/Doji/Inside bar

Ha Ha

1 min & 5 min contradict -> choppy

Visualization & Succesful trading

Article from the Saturday Ticket


Visualization: How Closing Your Eyes Could Make You A Better Athlete



Bubba Watson won this year's Masters on the strength of a 155-foot gap wedge shot, hit out of the pine straw, that hooked 40 yards to land on the green he couldn't even see.

It was one of the most spectacular shots ever made at Augusta. It was a shot that seemed to defy all physical logic. But to Watson, who has never had a golf lesson in his life, it made perfect sense. Prior to stepping up to make his shot, he visualized the outcome. Exactly.

"I just got into the trees, saw a crazy shot in my head, and now I'm wearing the Green Jacket," Watson said afterwards.

Sheesh, if only it was that easy for the rest of us.

Truth is, Watson is among a growing number of athletes who use visualization and imagery to create successful outcomes. Amateur and professional athletes alike are embracing the latest developments in scientific research to feel better about themselves, to improve their confidence, which in turn enhances their performance.

The use of visualization is particularly prominent in sports such as golf and tennis, as well as individual Olympic sports such as gymnastics and track and field. Jack Nicklaus, who has won more than 100 PGA tournaments, admits he has never hit a shot - not even in practice - without first visualizing its outcome. Tiger Woods, legendary for his mechanical approach to his swing, has long embraced visualization. Michael Jordan and Michael Phelps are other athletes who have spoken openly about the benefits of visualization.

Visualization at its most basic level is a learned technique where a person closes their eyes and actually imagines themselves succeeding in a particular situation. Essentially, they are watching themselves from afar. An athlete, for a example, might picture watching their performance on television. Imagery, by comparison, is an extension of visualization where an individual imagines a successful outcome from their own point of view using all five senses. The more detail they incorporate, the greater their chance of being successful. A golfer, for instance, would imagine not only making a great shot, but the euphoric feeling of walking up the green as the crowd cheers enthusiastically.

"The use of visualization and imagery does not guarantee success, but it guarantees the chance to be successful" said Dr. Paul Dennis, one of Canada's most renowned sports psychologists."If an athlete is struggling mentally, if they've lost confidence and are not feeling good about themselves, then they have no chance."

Dennis has been teaching visualization and imagery techniques to amateur and professional athletes for more than two decades. He spent 20 years as the player development coach with the Toronto Maple Leafs where he worked closely with players to help them reach their potential. Dennis has also worked with Canada's World Junior Hockey team to help young players deal with the incredible pressure of performing on such a large scale. He now teaches sports psychology at the University of Toronto where he researches the latest advancements in the field.

"I train athletes to use visualization and imagery, but ultimately it comes down to what an athlete needs at a particular time," said Dennis. "As an example, when I worked for the Leafs, I worked with players based on their unique roles on the team. Some players found value in imaging the finer points of a game, such as winning a faceoff, or picking up their man in the neutral zone, while other players imaged themselves breaking down the right wing and beating a goalie with a slap shot in the top corner," he said.

"The idea was to create an expectation of success in their mind based on them experiencing the emotions associated with success."

Mike Cammalleri, now with the Calgary Flames, is famous for his use of visualization and imagery. During the Montreal Canadiens 'playoff run in 2010, television cameras caught Cammalleri sitting on the players bench a couple of hours before a game, his eyes closed and head moving from side to side. He scored a two goals in that game and later revealed he was imaging his success. Cammalleri scored 13 goals in 19 games that Spring.

Amazingly, research has found that the brain uses the exact same process during visualization and imagery as it does performing a particular task. There is absolutely no difference in brain function when visualizing success as there is in achieving it.

Virtually all Olympic athletes now incorporate some form of visualization into their training routine. Peter Vidmar and Tim Daggett, American gymnasts, were among the first to realize success using it. For years, they ended their workouts by imaging a perfect routine, actually hearing the roar of the crowd and the sound of the American anthem as they stood on the gold medal podium, next to the Chinese team, who were heavily favoured to win gold. During the 1984 Olympics, the exact scene played itself out as the American team won the gold medal in front of an appreciative home crowd.

In professional sports, athletes are way ahead of the curve when it comes to using psychology to their advantage than coaches. Most coaches are still old school, clinging to the idea that their players are well-oiled robotic machines. They don't exactly reject advances in sports psychology, but they are so concerned with X's and O's that often neglect a player's psychological needs, leaving it to player development coaches like Dennis.

In professional hockey, only a handful of coaches are on the cutting edge of sports psychology. Tampa Bay coach Guy Boucher is one of them, as is Nashville's Barry Trotz and Dallas Eakins, who coaches the AHL's Toronto Marlies.

But with so many players turning to sports psychologists for an extra edge, it's only a matter of time before coaches and general managers alter their motivational approach. After all, if a southerner named Bubba can win the Masters because he saw himself making an improbable shot, then perhaps there really is something to visualization stuff.
********

ps. from VV

I spoke about Bubba a few weeks ago right after the Masters about this very shot.

Interesting how this very technique could be very effective in trading

500T Chart - can use Inside bar set up ?

As EIA yesterday up, mkt want to long today

EIA Report - no trade - just recorded thought

Chart uploading test

This chart was captured using free software and uploaded. Previously chart were directly  pasted from Sierra. After 2 marathon sessions. market quite choppy today

p.s. market down to 95.52 as predicted then bounced back

Long Tail Break Top

Long tail, EMA & Trendline (1 min)