Sunday, 25 October 2009
Thursday, 15 October 2009
Story - Writing a check before each trade
http://www.traderinterviews.com/content/KindergartenTrading.php
Look Both Ways Before Crossing the Street
I lost a trader today. There's no gentler way to say it. He's gone. This nice man sought my advice many times in the past, sent me regular emails filled with charts and I did my best to give him straight advice. But he emptied his trading account several days ago when the S&P futures ran more than 60 points higher in two trading days. I knew he was probably in trouble: He would regularly send me two or three charts during each trading day, showing me his entries and exits--some winners, some losers.
You see, he had a character flaw and it had been eating at him for several years. He hated being wrong! If the market stopped him out, he'd wait for the smallest indication that it might turn and head back again in the direction he had originally hoped it would head in and then jump back into the fire. There would be days when he would show me three, four, five, six losing trades in a row, all in the same direction. He was certain the market would finally 'get it' and turn around, so he would keep putting his fingers in the fire. And of course, he finally got terribly burnt.
I used to say, 'My momma taught me that trees don't grow to the skies'. But I quit saying that, because I noticed that people that read what I wrote began to say that, and some would say it when they saw large moves. When I used to say it, I meant that it's best to take your profits and get out clean if you find yourself in a 'windfall' profit situation. But suddenly, people were saying it when they were going over charts and looking at a huge run up in a market and were looking for a counter trend entry--which was not the context I had ever applied it in.
I was taught to look both ways when you cross the street and never stop on a rail road crossing; stepping in front of a fast moving car or train can be dangerous to your health! This trader stepped in front of a car, got up, shook his head and then stepped back onto the road and stepped in front of another car. Then he wiped his face on his shirt sleeve, turned around, and without looking, walked onto a train track and got hit square head-on by a fast moving locomotive. And that was the end of his trading capital.
When he gets up in the morning now, he doesn't get to sit in front of his computer and look at the pre-market charts; he eats his breakfast and gets into his car and drives down to the landscaping service he works for. He doesn't get to choose which pitchfork he is going to draw on his S&P chart at 8:45 in the morning; he gets to decide if he wants to use a spade or a pitchfork to dig around the bushes he is caring for that morning. His trading life is over.
The NFA statistics say that more than 90 percent of the retail accounts opened with $10,000 are closed within a year, because the traders that opened them have lost the majority of the money. That's a sobering statistic, but it has been a fairly steady number for years. That tells me that people beginning to trade are not hearing that statistic or they don't believe it applies to them; obviously it applies to all of us. If you don't find a way to control your losses, they will eat you alive!
There are people out there selling course or books that tell you they can teach ANYONE to trade and consistently make money. I'm sorry, it just isn't true. Some people are not built right emotionally to be successful traders, but then, some people are not built right emotionally to be successful writers; and most people are not built right physically to be NBA stars! But many people that try their hands at becoming successful traders are not getting all the help that is available to them.
Always Consider the Consequences of Your Actions
Some people are not built right emotionally to be successful traders, but then, some people are not built right emotionally to be successful writers; and most people are not built right physically to be NBA stars! But many people that try their hands at becoming successful traders are not getting all the help that is available to them.
Public perception is part of the problem: You would amazed to hear how many people think they can read one book or watch one video and then make money trading against the rest of the world, which includes the best traders in the world. Let's face it, there is no 'beginner's league' in trading--we all swim in the same water! I tell people that ask me how difficult it is to become a trader that they should think of it as getting a quality high school and university education.
I don't mean it will take seven or eight years--but they need a solid foundation followed by some deep discovery to find their own trading talents; and then they need to develop their own specialization. Once they have found an area of trading they like and might be good at, they need to master the tools of their trade. And of course, did I mention they need to be adequately funded? I am going to leave the question of the minimum amount in a trading account needed to realistically expect to make a living from your trading for another article, but every person considering trying their hand at trading should realize that the smaller their initial account, the less room for errors they have. And the last thing a new trader needs is the pressure 'not to lose'.
But there are things traders can do to take pressure off themselves, cues they can adopt to help themselves get on a winning run and shorten their losing runs--or at least minimize the effects of their series of losses. In my mentoring sessions, one of the things I teach after getting to know a new student is a set of tools that will force them to limit their losses and equally important, reward themselves when they really have a nice day.
Let me tell you how it works: If you normally risk $150 per contract per trade and you are trading one contract each time you trade, you should be choosing your trades so that they have a risk reward ratio of at least two dollars gained for every dollar risked. This means that on average, if you are risking $150 on every trade, your winning trades should average at least $300 at the end of each month. This is simple bottom line risk reward analysis. If your monthly risk reward is higher than 2:1 and you make winning trades fifty percent of the time, you are well on your way to being a profitable trader--but you're not there yet!
Think Before You Act
Now that we have your risk reward target, we need to talk about maximum sized losses versus maximum sized gains. When I begin to plan out a trade, I use a visual cue that helps me stay within the loss parameters I have set for myself. I view my trading account as a checking account, and when I am planning my trade and filling out my trade sheet [which I always do BEFORE I enter any trade], I literally write a check out in the air, right in front of myself, for the amount, per contract, that the potential trade will cost my trading account IF my stop loss is reached. If the check that I write out is for an amount more than is my maximum acceptable loss on any trade, per contract, I do not take the trade. The act of writing the check out in the air forces me to confront the size of the potential loss before the trade is entered.
And writing this check before each trade is entered has an added benefit: As I write the check, I simply consider that I have just 'spent' that amount, per contract, out of my trading account; I assume that money is gone, even before the trade is entered! Sounds crazy?
By assuming the stop loss money is gone, I have also dealt with any emotions associated with the trade if it turns into a loser: I've already lost that money, right? But if it turns into a winning trade, I not only get the profits I accrue in the trade but I get the initial stop loss money 'check' back as an added bonus! I know it sounds crazy and believe me, when I first started writing out stop loss checks in the air at the proprietary trading room I run in downtown Chicago, the other four traders used to scratch their heads or shrug their shoulders--they thought I was crazy, too.
But after watching me do it for a few weeks, they started doing their own version: One of them literally had checks printed out and he writes out a check while considering a trade; another has a check form built into his trade sheet, so he goes through the same ritual right on his trade sheet. Try it. You might find it helps you limit the size of your losses and also make it easier to deal with your losses.
By assuming the stop loss money is gone, I have also dealt with any emotions associated with the trade if it turns into a loser: I've already lost that money, right? But if it turns into a winning trade, I not only get the profits I accrue in the trade but I get the initial stop loss money 'check' back as an added bonus!
Follow The Rules and You'll Stay Out of Trouble
The next piece I always put in place is simple limits:
1. The maximum amount you are allowed to lose in a day.
2. The maximum amount you are allowed to lose on any trade.
3. The maximum number of losing trades you are allowed in a row in a day before you stop trading.
4. The maximum number of losing trades you are allowed to have in a day before you stop trading.
5. The maximum number of losing trades in the same direction you are allowed to take in a day before you stop trading.
6. If you violate one of your trading rules, you will take XX days off, staying away from the markets entirely.
Sound restrictive to you? It's meant to be restrictive! There should be hard limits on every aspect of your trading. If you start to lose money and it turns into a series of losers, you want hard limits in place so the damage to your account is limited. If you break one of your trading rules, you are either out of control or you are very tired and ragged and badly need an emotional or physical break.
Let's try to fill in those numbers a bit and see how they might look. If you look at your current trading statistics and see that on a good day, you make on average $500, and your maximum loss you take as your initial risk is $150 [per contract and you are currently trading one contract per trade], the numbers might look like this:
1. The maximum amount you are allowed to lose in a day is $900.
2. The maximum amount you are allowed to lose on any single trade is $150.
3. The maximum number of losing trades in a row you are allowed to have in a day before you stop trading is three.
4. The maximum number of losing trades you are allowed to have in a day before you stop trading is five [You may have had a win or two between losses, but there IS a time to stop trading].
5. The maximum number of losing trades in the same direction you are allowed to take in a day before you stop trading is three.
You'll note that the maximum amount you are allowed to lose in a day is considerable larger than if you had three losing trades in a row and lost their maximum amount. This is purposely set higher because there are times when you get unusual slippage OR have a position on and an unusual event occurs, leaving you with a loss much greater than your planned $150. You can adjust these numbers up or down. But the key is to have them in place, written down and in front of you at all times. And NEVER violate them. If you violate them FORCE yourself to take time off from trading.
You'll Be Rewarded For Good Behavior
Now let me add an additionally important piece to this plan: Rewarding yourself! Let's see if we can define some important ways that might underline the positive events in your trading days:
1. If you are up XX on a single trade, you will put a profit floor of XX underneath the current price to protect a portion of those profits.
2. If you are up XX on a single trade, you will take the money and close out the trade.
3. If you are up XX for the day, you will take the rest of the day off, stay away from the trading screens and do something you enjoy doing--other than trading!
4. If you are up XX for the month, you will put a profit floor of XX underneath the month's profits to protect a portion of those profits.
5. If you are up XX for the month, you will take the rest of the month off, stay away from the trading screens and do something you enjoy doing--other than trading! Take a vacation, sleep late and read books, do something fun!
Trading is hard work! When you get it right, it is important to internally recognize that you did something special.
I can't tell you how many traders have experienced this: At the beginning of the day, they take a position in their normal market. Unexpected news comes out and before they know it, they have three times as much in potential profit in this first trade than they have ever made in a single day! They assume the trade will keep running because of the news and watch as it tops out and begins to turn. Because they have never had 'parabolic' profits from news before, they don't realize that sometimes, what goes up fast, comes down just as fast. Before they know it, they find themselves taking 'some' profits out of the trade, but the profit they end up taking is much smaller than their largest profit in a day--this trade becomes the 'big one' got away.
Stop and think about this for a moment. Had they simply taken the stupendous profit and walked away, it would have been marked in their trading memory for life! Instead, the trade will always be remembered by them as 'I almost...' and be a disappointment, even if they made a good deal of money on the trade.
And if they then go on and make more trades that day, they often turn what had been a 'career' type trading day into a flat or losing day. They are so stunned and wrung out from the emotional roller coaster ride of the first trade that they are not capable of trading with their normal discipline. This can be an emotional nightmare for a trader and in many ways, cripple their trading career for life!
Let's see if we can fill in some of those numbers [all assuming you are trading a single contract at a time]:
1. If you are up $1200 on a single trade, you will put a profit floor of $500 underneath the current price to protect a portion of those profits.
2. If you are up $1800 on a single trade, you will take the money and close out the trade.
3. If you are up $2500 for the day, you will take the rest of the day off, stay away from the trading screens and do something you enjoy doing--other than trading!
4. If you are up $15,000 for the month, you will put a profit floor of $5,000 underneath the month's profits to protect a portion of those profits.
5. If you are up $20,000 for the month, you will take the rest of the month off, stay away from the trading screens and do something you enjoy doing--other than trading! Take a vacation, sleep late and read books, do something fun!
I based these numbers on a trader with an average winning trade of $500 per contract, a fifty percent win/loss ratio and again, this trader always only trades one contract at a time. The size of the numbers you come up with may be radically different than what I just wrote down. They are only meant as a starting point for your mental exercise! It should take you several weeks of soul searching before you finalize your first set of 'hard and fast' rules. But you SHOULD have a set of rules written down and on your trading desk where you can see them at all times. You should also always fill out a trade plan BEFORE you enter any trade, and stick to your trade plan without fail! As I noted before, if you violate any of the trading rules, make yourself take a break. If you love trading, having to be away from it should feel terrible! You will avoid being put 'in the penalty box' at all costs!
This trader wasn't in my mentoring program but he conversed with me via email daily--often enough that when a day went by when I didn't get an email from him, I would wonder if he had hit a tough streak or if he had taken a day off. After he had one rough stretch, I emailed him and spelled out the set of rules I suggest to the traders I mentor. He thanked me for them, told me he thought they were a great idea and never mentioned them again.
I lost a trader today. It saddens me to think that I was unable to help him overcome his own internal flaws. I truly did my best to help him, but it wasn't enough. One thing I tell people in my free webcasts, on my websites and in my mentoring programs is this: Your birth certificate does not say 'Trader' on it. If you want to be a consistently successful trader, you have to learn a good deal about the markets and about trading tools; but mostly, you have to learn a great deal about yourself!
To your trading success,
Tim Morge
Look Both Ways Before Crossing the Street
I lost a trader today. There's no gentler way to say it. He's gone. This nice man sought my advice many times in the past, sent me regular emails filled with charts and I did my best to give him straight advice. But he emptied his trading account several days ago when the S&P futures ran more than 60 points higher in two trading days. I knew he was probably in trouble: He would regularly send me two or three charts during each trading day, showing me his entries and exits--some winners, some losers.
You see, he had a character flaw and it had been eating at him for several years. He hated being wrong! If the market stopped him out, he'd wait for the smallest indication that it might turn and head back again in the direction he had originally hoped it would head in and then jump back into the fire. There would be days when he would show me three, four, five, six losing trades in a row, all in the same direction. He was certain the market would finally 'get it' and turn around, so he would keep putting his fingers in the fire. And of course, he finally got terribly burnt.
I used to say, 'My momma taught me that trees don't grow to the skies'. But I quit saying that, because I noticed that people that read what I wrote began to say that, and some would say it when they saw large moves. When I used to say it, I meant that it's best to take your profits and get out clean if you find yourself in a 'windfall' profit situation. But suddenly, people were saying it when they were going over charts and looking at a huge run up in a market and were looking for a counter trend entry--which was not the context I had ever applied it in.
I was taught to look both ways when you cross the street and never stop on a rail road crossing; stepping in front of a fast moving car or train can be dangerous to your health! This trader stepped in front of a car, got up, shook his head and then stepped back onto the road and stepped in front of another car. Then he wiped his face on his shirt sleeve, turned around, and without looking, walked onto a train track and got hit square head-on by a fast moving locomotive. And that was the end of his trading capital.
When he gets up in the morning now, he doesn't get to sit in front of his computer and look at the pre-market charts; he eats his breakfast and gets into his car and drives down to the landscaping service he works for. He doesn't get to choose which pitchfork he is going to draw on his S&P chart at 8:45 in the morning; he gets to decide if he wants to use a spade or a pitchfork to dig around the bushes he is caring for that morning. His trading life is over.
The NFA statistics say that more than 90 percent of the retail accounts opened with $10,000 are closed within a year, because the traders that opened them have lost the majority of the money. That's a sobering statistic, but it has been a fairly steady number for years. That tells me that people beginning to trade are not hearing that statistic or they don't believe it applies to them; obviously it applies to all of us. If you don't find a way to control your losses, they will eat you alive!
There are people out there selling course or books that tell you they can teach ANYONE to trade and consistently make money. I'm sorry, it just isn't true. Some people are not built right emotionally to be successful traders, but then, some people are not built right emotionally to be successful writers; and most people are not built right physically to be NBA stars! But many people that try their hands at becoming successful traders are not getting all the help that is available to them.
Always Consider the Consequences of Your Actions
Some people are not built right emotionally to be successful traders, but then, some people are not built right emotionally to be successful writers; and most people are not built right physically to be NBA stars! But many people that try their hands at becoming successful traders are not getting all the help that is available to them.
Public perception is part of the problem: You would amazed to hear how many people think they can read one book or watch one video and then make money trading against the rest of the world, which includes the best traders in the world. Let's face it, there is no 'beginner's league' in trading--we all swim in the same water! I tell people that ask me how difficult it is to become a trader that they should think of it as getting a quality high school and university education.
I don't mean it will take seven or eight years--but they need a solid foundation followed by some deep discovery to find their own trading talents; and then they need to develop their own specialization. Once they have found an area of trading they like and might be good at, they need to master the tools of their trade. And of course, did I mention they need to be adequately funded? I am going to leave the question of the minimum amount in a trading account needed to realistically expect to make a living from your trading for another article, but every person considering trying their hand at trading should realize that the smaller their initial account, the less room for errors they have. And the last thing a new trader needs is the pressure 'not to lose'.
But there are things traders can do to take pressure off themselves, cues they can adopt to help themselves get on a winning run and shorten their losing runs--or at least minimize the effects of their series of losses. In my mentoring sessions, one of the things I teach after getting to know a new student is a set of tools that will force them to limit their losses and equally important, reward themselves when they really have a nice day.
Let me tell you how it works: If you normally risk $150 per contract per trade and you are trading one contract each time you trade, you should be choosing your trades so that they have a risk reward ratio of at least two dollars gained for every dollar risked. This means that on average, if you are risking $150 on every trade, your winning trades should average at least $300 at the end of each month. This is simple bottom line risk reward analysis. If your monthly risk reward is higher than 2:1 and you make winning trades fifty percent of the time, you are well on your way to being a profitable trader--but you're not there yet!
Think Before You Act
Now that we have your risk reward target, we need to talk about maximum sized losses versus maximum sized gains. When I begin to plan out a trade, I use a visual cue that helps me stay within the loss parameters I have set for myself. I view my trading account as a checking account, and when I am planning my trade and filling out my trade sheet [which I always do BEFORE I enter any trade], I literally write a check out in the air, right in front of myself, for the amount, per contract, that the potential trade will cost my trading account IF my stop loss is reached. If the check that I write out is for an amount more than is my maximum acceptable loss on any trade, per contract, I do not take the trade. The act of writing the check out in the air forces me to confront the size of the potential loss before the trade is entered.
And writing this check before each trade is entered has an added benefit: As I write the check, I simply consider that I have just 'spent' that amount, per contract, out of my trading account; I assume that money is gone, even before the trade is entered! Sounds crazy?
By assuming the stop loss money is gone, I have also dealt with any emotions associated with the trade if it turns into a loser: I've already lost that money, right? But if it turns into a winning trade, I not only get the profits I accrue in the trade but I get the initial stop loss money 'check' back as an added bonus! I know it sounds crazy and believe me, when I first started writing out stop loss checks in the air at the proprietary trading room I run in downtown Chicago, the other four traders used to scratch their heads or shrug their shoulders--they thought I was crazy, too.
But after watching me do it for a few weeks, they started doing their own version: One of them literally had checks printed out and he writes out a check while considering a trade; another has a check form built into his trade sheet, so he goes through the same ritual right on his trade sheet. Try it. You might find it helps you limit the size of your losses and also make it easier to deal with your losses.
By assuming the stop loss money is gone, I have also dealt with any emotions associated with the trade if it turns into a loser: I've already lost that money, right? But if it turns into a winning trade, I not only get the profits I accrue in the trade but I get the initial stop loss money 'check' back as an added bonus!
Follow The Rules and You'll Stay Out of Trouble
The next piece I always put in place is simple limits:
1. The maximum amount you are allowed to lose in a day.
2. The maximum amount you are allowed to lose on any trade.
3. The maximum number of losing trades you are allowed in a row in a day before you stop trading.
4. The maximum number of losing trades you are allowed to have in a day before you stop trading.
5. The maximum number of losing trades in the same direction you are allowed to take in a day before you stop trading.
6. If you violate one of your trading rules, you will take XX days off, staying away from the markets entirely.
Sound restrictive to you? It's meant to be restrictive! There should be hard limits on every aspect of your trading. If you start to lose money and it turns into a series of losers, you want hard limits in place so the damage to your account is limited. If you break one of your trading rules, you are either out of control or you are very tired and ragged and badly need an emotional or physical break.
Let's try to fill in those numbers a bit and see how they might look. If you look at your current trading statistics and see that on a good day, you make on average $500, and your maximum loss you take as your initial risk is $150 [per contract and you are currently trading one contract per trade], the numbers might look like this:
1. The maximum amount you are allowed to lose in a day is $900.
2. The maximum amount you are allowed to lose on any single trade is $150.
3. The maximum number of losing trades in a row you are allowed to have in a day before you stop trading is three.
4. The maximum number of losing trades you are allowed to have in a day before you stop trading is five [You may have had a win or two between losses, but there IS a time to stop trading].
5. The maximum number of losing trades in the same direction you are allowed to take in a day before you stop trading is three.
You'll note that the maximum amount you are allowed to lose in a day is considerable larger than if you had three losing trades in a row and lost their maximum amount. This is purposely set higher because there are times when you get unusual slippage OR have a position on and an unusual event occurs, leaving you with a loss much greater than your planned $150. You can adjust these numbers up or down. But the key is to have them in place, written down and in front of you at all times. And NEVER violate them. If you violate them FORCE yourself to take time off from trading.
You'll Be Rewarded For Good Behavior
Now let me add an additionally important piece to this plan: Rewarding yourself! Let's see if we can define some important ways that might underline the positive events in your trading days:
1. If you are up XX on a single trade, you will put a profit floor of XX underneath the current price to protect a portion of those profits.
2. If you are up XX on a single trade, you will take the money and close out the trade.
3. If you are up XX for the day, you will take the rest of the day off, stay away from the trading screens and do something you enjoy doing--other than trading!
4. If you are up XX for the month, you will put a profit floor of XX underneath the month's profits to protect a portion of those profits.
5. If you are up XX for the month, you will take the rest of the month off, stay away from the trading screens and do something you enjoy doing--other than trading! Take a vacation, sleep late and read books, do something fun!
Trading is hard work! When you get it right, it is important to internally recognize that you did something special.
I can't tell you how many traders have experienced this: At the beginning of the day, they take a position in their normal market. Unexpected news comes out and before they know it, they have three times as much in potential profit in this first trade than they have ever made in a single day! They assume the trade will keep running because of the news and watch as it tops out and begins to turn. Because they have never had 'parabolic' profits from news before, they don't realize that sometimes, what goes up fast, comes down just as fast. Before they know it, they find themselves taking 'some' profits out of the trade, but the profit they end up taking is much smaller than their largest profit in a day--this trade becomes the 'big one' got away.
Stop and think about this for a moment. Had they simply taken the stupendous profit and walked away, it would have been marked in their trading memory for life! Instead, the trade will always be remembered by them as 'I almost...' and be a disappointment, even if they made a good deal of money on the trade.
And if they then go on and make more trades that day, they often turn what had been a 'career' type trading day into a flat or losing day. They are so stunned and wrung out from the emotional roller coaster ride of the first trade that they are not capable of trading with their normal discipline. This can be an emotional nightmare for a trader and in many ways, cripple their trading career for life!
Let's see if we can fill in some of those numbers [all assuming you are trading a single contract at a time]:
1. If you are up $1200 on a single trade, you will put a profit floor of $500 underneath the current price to protect a portion of those profits.
2. If you are up $1800 on a single trade, you will take the money and close out the trade.
3. If you are up $2500 for the day, you will take the rest of the day off, stay away from the trading screens and do something you enjoy doing--other than trading!
4. If you are up $15,000 for the month, you will put a profit floor of $5,000 underneath the month's profits to protect a portion of those profits.
5. If you are up $20,000 for the month, you will take the rest of the month off, stay away from the trading screens and do something you enjoy doing--other than trading! Take a vacation, sleep late and read books, do something fun!
I based these numbers on a trader with an average winning trade of $500 per contract, a fifty percent win/loss ratio and again, this trader always only trades one contract at a time. The size of the numbers you come up with may be radically different than what I just wrote down. They are only meant as a starting point for your mental exercise! It should take you several weeks of soul searching before you finalize your first set of 'hard and fast' rules. But you SHOULD have a set of rules written down and on your trading desk where you can see them at all times. You should also always fill out a trade plan BEFORE you enter any trade, and stick to your trade plan without fail! As I noted before, if you violate any of the trading rules, make yourself take a break. If you love trading, having to be away from it should feel terrible! You will avoid being put 'in the penalty box' at all costs!
This trader wasn't in my mentoring program but he conversed with me via email daily--often enough that when a day went by when I didn't get an email from him, I would wonder if he had hit a tough streak or if he had taken a day off. After he had one rough stretch, I emailed him and spelled out the set of rules I suggest to the traders I mentor. He thanked me for them, told me he thought they were a great idea and never mentioned them again.
I lost a trader today. It saddens me to think that I was unable to help him overcome his own internal flaws. I truly did my best to help him, but it wasn't enough. One thing I tell people in my free webcasts, on my websites and in my mentoring programs is this: Your birth certificate does not say 'Trader' on it. If you want to be a consistently successful trader, you have to learn a good deal about the markets and about trading tools; but mostly, you have to learn a great deal about yourself!
To your trading success,
Tim Morge
Tuesday, 13 October 2009
Friday, 9 October 2009
Story
http://thelonelytrader.wordpress.com/2008/11/22/correlations-trading-philosophy-and-etc/
Was talking to a friend of mine last night who had traded currencies professionally for eleven years and now trades exclusively for a few of his old clients. This guy is a machine, trading in size and regularly pulling in over 3% per month. He doesn’t sleep like the rest of us. He catches cat naps here and there — two hours in the afternoon, a few hours at night, and then sleeps like a log on holidays and weekends. He takes the summers off and recharges. He doesn’t head out to some exotic locale. He putters around his house outside of Asheville, NC, running his dogs and riding horses and hanging out at the BBQ pit with his family. He trades FX spot (majors and their crosses), ES, YM, ZB (T Bonds) and a few interest rate contracts, CL and WTI. I asked him once why he trades the little S&P over the big one — he said he prefers the E-mini S&P because it is traded electronically and he gets better fills. I know most of the people reading this will laugh about his returns – I have read rediculous statements about trading not being worth it if one isn’t making more than 100% per year. Most people reading this don’t make the money this guy does…in fact, it’s safe to say that NOBODY reading this blog makes the money this guy does. And I doubt the knuckleheads who made those statements — on EliteTrader.com, I think — are profitable traders. He isn’t a supermegaultimate trader, but he does make a very comfortable living for his family and probably contributes significantly to his clients’ standard of living.
Anyway, we were talking about correlations last night. I was on one of my usual rants about how correlations are not so important when trading on lower time frames. I have seen quite a few people commenting on blogs about the dangers of taking correlated trades. I have observed that most of the bloggers taking these trades are operating on very short time frames. I don’t see a problem on 5min, 3min, 1min and tick charts, as long as one’s method has been tested and the execution is consistent. He agreed, saying that people get confused about how to manage correlations. He trades highly correlated pairs all the time on intraday charts. He doesn’t try to enter the trades at the same time. He enters only when signals print. Often one will win and the other will lose. And he nets a gain. For example, he would take a short in EURUSD and a long in USDCHF (inversely correlated currency pairs), exiting one for a loss and one for a gain. Occasionally he loses on both. He also wins on both, with one often making an outsized gain. An outsized gain for him would be anything above 2R. (Another peeve of his is when traders harp on the 3:1 rule. His experience has been that if he is too insistent on making 3R, he gives back more profit than if he were to simple take 2R.) “Correlations,” he says, “are important for longer term strategies and portfolio managers. I am not a portfolio manager.” I recall having a similar conversation with him about the Sharpe ratio. He thinks it is useless for most traders.
I was on the East Coast for training a few years ago and had a chance to drive out to his house to see his operation. Very humble. Four screens, two computers, and a laptop in a small office. A cheap but comfortable chair, a foot riser, and a treadmill with a side table (for the laptop). He inspired my own setup, minus the treadmill — I have an elliptical machine in the garage, also with a side table for a laptop. (Have to use that elliptical machine more often! It was pricey!) I asked him why the blinds were closed when he had such a nice view. “Focus,” was his answer. I was there during the summer and he wasn’t trading but he still had charts and data up on the screens. We get along well because we are both critical of dogmatic people — whether they are religious zealots, scientists…or traders! When I ask a question, he always asks what I think. This strategy worked, because I don’t ask questions anymore. We end up discussing ideas, instead of one person imparting knowledge to another. Makes for a much more interesting conversation. We have two completely different styles of trading, but he enjoys talking about markets as much as I do and doesn’t seem to mind the vast difference between us in terms of our success as traders. He is genuinely interested in what people think about the markets, no matter who they are. (Another one of his peeves is when traders say they have no opinion about where the markets will go. “What the hell are they trading for, then? Don’t they have a method? Well that is a f@#%ing opinion! What are they doing? Don’t they know why the method is giving them a signal? Don’t they understand why they are long or short or out?”) He’s not a finance geek — he speaks in big blue arrow terms and in plain English. But he is extremely critical of people who don’t understand the simple math behind what they do and the myriad ways to interpret it. “Even if you use an MA or a stochastic, you gotta understand why you use it, what the damn squigglies are and aren’t telling you and whether any of that even makes sense in the moment according to your view of the market. And if you tell me MAs don’t work, I will tell you that you are a presumptuous, one-dimensional knuckle-dragger and you don’t know what you’re talking about.”
In case you’re wondering, he really did say “presumptuous, one-dimensional knuckle-dragger.” After talking to him, I write down the thoughts that stick. He ridiculed me once for this, but after he got his two or three shots in he muttered, ”I should do that.”
He asks: “Why don’t you trade bonds, Jay? Why don’t you trade crude?”
My reply: “I don’t have the capital or the time.”
His reply: “Well I guess you better get things right then, sonny-boy!”
Dontcha love this guy
(-LT)
Was talking to a friend of mine last night who had traded currencies professionally for eleven years and now trades exclusively for a few of his old clients. This guy is a machine, trading in size and regularly pulling in over 3% per month. He doesn’t sleep like the rest of us. He catches cat naps here and there — two hours in the afternoon, a few hours at night, and then sleeps like a log on holidays and weekends. He takes the summers off and recharges. He doesn’t head out to some exotic locale. He putters around his house outside of Asheville, NC, running his dogs and riding horses and hanging out at the BBQ pit with his family. He trades FX spot (majors and their crosses), ES, YM, ZB (T Bonds) and a few interest rate contracts, CL and WTI. I asked him once why he trades the little S&P over the big one — he said he prefers the E-mini S&P because it is traded electronically and he gets better fills. I know most of the people reading this will laugh about his returns – I have read rediculous statements about trading not being worth it if one isn’t making more than 100% per year. Most people reading this don’t make the money this guy does…in fact, it’s safe to say that NOBODY reading this blog makes the money this guy does. And I doubt the knuckleheads who made those statements — on EliteTrader.com, I think — are profitable traders. He isn’t a supermegaultimate trader, but he does make a very comfortable living for his family and probably contributes significantly to his clients’ standard of living.
Anyway, we were talking about correlations last night. I was on one of my usual rants about how correlations are not so important when trading on lower time frames. I have seen quite a few people commenting on blogs about the dangers of taking correlated trades. I have observed that most of the bloggers taking these trades are operating on very short time frames. I don’t see a problem on 5min, 3min, 1min and tick charts, as long as one’s method has been tested and the execution is consistent. He agreed, saying that people get confused about how to manage correlations. He trades highly correlated pairs all the time on intraday charts. He doesn’t try to enter the trades at the same time. He enters only when signals print. Often one will win and the other will lose. And he nets a gain. For example, he would take a short in EURUSD and a long in USDCHF (inversely correlated currency pairs), exiting one for a loss and one for a gain. Occasionally he loses on both. He also wins on both, with one often making an outsized gain. An outsized gain for him would be anything above 2R. (Another peeve of his is when traders harp on the 3:1 rule. His experience has been that if he is too insistent on making 3R, he gives back more profit than if he were to simple take 2R.) “Correlations,” he says, “are important for longer term strategies and portfolio managers. I am not a portfolio manager.” I recall having a similar conversation with him about the Sharpe ratio. He thinks it is useless for most traders.
I was on the East Coast for training a few years ago and had a chance to drive out to his house to see his operation. Very humble. Four screens, two computers, and a laptop in a small office. A cheap but comfortable chair, a foot riser, and a treadmill with a side table (for the laptop). He inspired my own setup, minus the treadmill — I have an elliptical machine in the garage, also with a side table for a laptop. (Have to use that elliptical machine more often! It was pricey!) I asked him why the blinds were closed when he had such a nice view. “Focus,” was his answer. I was there during the summer and he wasn’t trading but he still had charts and data up on the screens. We get along well because we are both critical of dogmatic people — whether they are religious zealots, scientists…or traders! When I ask a question, he always asks what I think. This strategy worked, because I don’t ask questions anymore. We end up discussing ideas, instead of one person imparting knowledge to another. Makes for a much more interesting conversation. We have two completely different styles of trading, but he enjoys talking about markets as much as I do and doesn’t seem to mind the vast difference between us in terms of our success as traders. He is genuinely interested in what people think about the markets, no matter who they are. (Another one of his peeves is when traders say they have no opinion about where the markets will go. “What the hell are they trading for, then? Don’t they have a method? Well that is a f@#%ing opinion! What are they doing? Don’t they know why the method is giving them a signal? Don’t they understand why they are long or short or out?”) He’s not a finance geek — he speaks in big blue arrow terms and in plain English. But he is extremely critical of people who don’t understand the simple math behind what they do and the myriad ways to interpret it. “Even if you use an MA or a stochastic, you gotta understand why you use it, what the damn squigglies are and aren’t telling you and whether any of that even makes sense in the moment according to your view of the market. And if you tell me MAs don’t work, I will tell you that you are a presumptuous, one-dimensional knuckle-dragger and you don’t know what you’re talking about.”
In case you’re wondering, he really did say “presumptuous, one-dimensional knuckle-dragger.” After talking to him, I write down the thoughts that stick. He ridiculed me once for this, but after he got his two or three shots in he muttered, ”I should do that.”
He asks: “Why don’t you trade bonds, Jay? Why don’t you trade crude?”
My reply: “I don’t have the capital or the time.”
His reply: “Well I guess you better get things right then, sonny-boy!”
Dontcha love this guy
(-LT)
Thursday, 8 October 2009
If you're going to work on a weakness, never choose more than one.
http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/bregman/2009/10/i-lost-18-pounds-in.html
I lost 18 pounds in the past month and a half.To Change Effectively, Change Just One Thing
2:42 PM Tuesday October 6, 2009
I didn't exercise harder or longer than usual. I didn't read a new diet book supported by evidence and filled with rules and recipes. I didn't eat prepared meals from a diet organization.
I've done all those things in the past and some of them worked but none of them lasted. They were too complicated or too expensive or too cumbersome to continue.
So I made a different decision this time. A much simpler one.
First a little background on losing weight. Every new diet book explains why it's better than all the previous ones. This new plan, the author claims with enthusiasm, holds the key to losing weight and keeping it off forever. It will succeed where the others have failed.
So we decrease our fat consumption. Or increase it. We eat more protein. Or less. We raise our intake of carbohydrates. Or reduce it. And the question lingers: which is the best diet to lose weight?
Well, we now have the answer. A study published in the New England Journal of Medicine earlier this year put 811 overweight adults through four different diets, each one a different proportion of fat, carbohydrates and protein.
The result? On average participants lost 12 pounds after six months and kept nine pounds off after two years. No matter which diet they followed. Certainly some diets are healthier than others. But in terms of losing weight? No diet was better than any other. Because all diets work through a single mechanism — they restrict your calorie intake. People lose weight when they eat less.
If that's true, then the best diet is the simplest one. So I asked myself: what's the one thing I can change that will make the biggest difference in my calorie consumption? Everyone has one thing.
Mine was sugar. Sometimes I would eat three bowls of ice cream in a day. If I changed that, everything else would work itself out. Cutting out sugar was the one thing that would give me the highest return.
So I stopped eating it. No more cookies, candy, cake, ice cream. That's the only change I consciously made. I sidestepped millions of complex little decisions most diets require — counting, weighing, choosing, deciding. No phases, no recipes, no thinking.
Each person's one thing could be different. For some it might be fried foods. For others, meat. For others still, soft drinks. What's important is to keep it simple.
The implications of this are huge, not just for diets but for all behavior change (after all, what else is a diet but behavior change?).
Typically, people overwhelm themselves with tasks in their eagerness to make a change successfully. But that's a mistake. Instead, they should take the time up front to figure out the one and only thing that will have the highest impact and then focus 100% of their effort on that one thing.
A few years ago a Fortune 100 client asked me to design a new leadership training program. They already had one and had spent several years training people in it, but now they wanted a new one. Why? Because the current one wasn't having the impact they wanted.
I asked to see the old one. Honestly? While I'd love to say my leadership ideas are far superior, I thought the ones they were using were equally good. Leadership models are no different than diets — most of them are just fine. The brilliance is rarely in the model, it's in the implementation.
Don't start from scratch, I pleaded with them. You've already spent years spreading the word, inculcating the language, and socializing the concepts of the old leadership methodology. People are familiar with it. Don't get rid of it.
Just simplify it. Reduce it to its essence. What's the one thing that will have the greatest impact on their leadership?
After some thought they concluded that if managers communicated more with their employees it would solve the majority of their issues. Great, I suggested, focus all your efforts on that. Let everything else go.
Sam, an entrepreneur friend of mine, called me disheartened after his business didn't work out. He's taking a few months off before starting his next venture, and we discussed how he should spend his time. It turns out that Sam's dyslexic and has always had difficulty reading.
We agreed he should do one thing in his time off: read every day. That's unusual advice from me. Usually I tell people to forget about their weaknesses and focus on their strengths. But in Sam's case the dividend will be huge. If he can tackle reading, not only will it open doors for him, he'll conquer the one thing he thought he couldn't do. That confidence will change everything else in his life.
If you're going to work on a weakness, never choose more than one.
A large retail organization with stores all over the world — we'll call it Marla's Clothing — developed ten "Gold" behaviors they wanted all sales associates to exhibit. Things like greet each customer, ask customers if they want an accessory at the point of sale, measure customers for a good fit, and thank each customer for shopping at the store. Stores in which sales associates exhibited all ten behaviors saw a substantial increase in sales.
After some time, Marla's Clothing sent in mystery shoppers to see how the sales associates were doing. Management was pleased: on average the associates were displaying nine of the ten behaviors.
I asked the project lead if they had seen a change in sales as a result of this 90% success rate. After a short inspection of the data it turned out they hadn't.
So we looked to see if the associates were each missing different behaviors or if they were avoiding a specific one of the ten. As we suspected, they were all skipping the same behavior: measuring customers for a good fit.
"You don't have ten Gold behaviors," I told the project lead, "You have one. Measuring customers for a good fit is your one thing." We instructed the sales associates to focus solely on doing that one thing. Marla's Clothing sales shot up.
"18 pounds!" a friend of mine exclaimed. "You should write a book about it."
I considered it for a second but quickly realized I'd only have one thing to say.
"Not a book," I responded, "but maybe a blog post."
Friday, 2 October 2009
Thursday, 1 October 2009
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